000 AXNT20 KNHC 270449 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1249 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support winds pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia. The gale force winds will recur each night during the evening and overnight hours, through at least Thursday morning, while this surface weather pattern persists. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. This information also is found at the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine. ...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force NE winds are forecast to continue for the following areas: AGADIR, TARFAYA, and severe gusts between the islands of the Canary Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of Liberia from 04N- 06N between 09W-11W. Similar convection is from 01N-04N between 27W-30W. Isolated moderate convection is along the coast of Brazil from 01S-03S between 38W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 27/0300 UTC, a dissipating cold front extends from S Florida near 26N80W to S Alabama near 30N88W. Isolated showers are over S Florida. The remainder of basin is void of precipitation. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from the eastern Pacific Ocean, across Mexico, and into the westernmost parts of the Gulf of Mexico. Ridge axis is along 90W. A strong surface ridge, extending from the western Atlantic Ocean across the eastern and central Gulf waters, will maintain strong SE return flow through early Thursday afternoon. The ridge will weaken starting on Thursday afternoon, as it shifts eastward in response to a cold front that enters the NW Gulf early on Thursday. The cold front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Tuxpan, Mexico by Thursday night, and weaken as it reaches from near Sarasota to the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night. The front will be preceded by a trough, and followed by mainly fresh N to NE winds, except for strong NW winds along parts of the Mexican coast adjacent to the SW Gulf on Friday. A trough will develop over the Yucatan peninsula each evening through Friday, and shift westward across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia. Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for additional information. 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. A Gale is presently along the coast of N Colombia until 27/1200 UTC. Scattered showers are noted over the Windward Islands, inland over Hispaniola, and over N Colombia. An upper level trough passes across the Bahamas, Cuba, and Hispaniola, and the central Caribbean with axis along 72W. High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to locally strong trades across the south central Caribbean Sea during the next several days. The winds will pulse to minimal gale force along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours through Thursday. Strong E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each night from tonight through Thursday night. Strong NE winds will pulse through the Windward Passage through Thursday night. An extensive set of large N to NE swells will propagate into the NE Caribbean passages from Wednesday through Thursday night, and then subside. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 27/0300 UTC, a cold front extends over the W Atlantic from 32N58W to 27N64W to 25N67W to 24N75W to S Florida near 26N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough, the remnanats of a dissipating stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 28N56W to 22N62W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A 1034 mb high is centered E of the Azores near 38N21W. A ridge axis extends SW from the high to the E Atlantic near 26N50W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N26W, about 600 nm to the west of the coast of the Western Sahara. The W Atlantic cold front will move E to the central Atlantic and dissipate on Wed. Large N to NE swells will impact mainly the waters NE and E of the Bahamas from Tuesday through early Thursday. These swells will propagate into the NE Caribbean passages from Wednesday through Thursday. The next cold front should approach the far northwest corner of the area on Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa