000 AXNT20 KNHC 260534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 134 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A combination of strong surface high pressure ridging southward from a high E of the Bahamas and relatively strong low pressure over northern South America supports winds pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia. The gale force winds will recur each night during the evening and overnight hours through the end of next week while this surface weather pattern persists. For more details please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. This information can also be found at the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine ...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds N to NE winds are forecast to develop this evening for the following areas: Portions of the AGADIR and TARFAYA zones adjacent to the coast of Morocco, and NE CANARIAS over the Canary Islands. Winds will become strong northerly from tonight through Mon night. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N30W to 03S42W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 00N-02N between 00W-13W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 04N-08N between 10W-13W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-06N between 19W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of South America from 02N-02S between 48W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 26/0300 UTC a cold front is over N Florida from Daytona Beach to Tallahassee moving ESE. Scattered showers are within 60 nm N of the front. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin as a 1021 mb surface high centered E of the Bahamas near 27N67W ridges westward across the Gulf. Mostly SE flow prevails across the basin. Sea heights are highest, near 5 ft, in the NW Gulf due to the longer fetch in this area. Abundant dry air prevails as ridging at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere extends over the Gulf. A larger and stronger high over the E coast of the United States will move S behind the cold front and produce more SE surface flow over the Gulf. Developing low pres over the central plains states will tighten the pressure gradient over the Gulf and cause winds to become fresh to strong on Tue. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed night. Surface troughing is expected to develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then migrate W over the Bay of Campeche during the evening and nighttime hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for additional information. Relatively quiet conditions exist across the basin as mid to upper-level ridging maintains a relatively dry and subsident weather pattern over the basin. Trade winds are strongest over the south-central waters N of the coast of Colombia. Winds are expected to reach gale-force during the evening and overnight hours. Winds will continue pulsing every night through Thu night/Fri morning. Presently, gale is in effect, and ends 26/1200 UTC. See the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details. Otherwise, ridging extending southward from along the east coast of the United States will maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the Caribbean basin through the first half of next week. Winds will be fresh to strong in the Windward Passage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has entered the W Atlantic from 32N68W to Daytona Florida near 29N81W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 29N between 68W-71W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 32N47W to 22N60W, then dissipating to the Virgin Islands near 18N65W. Scattered showers are observed within 60 nm of the front. West of these fronts, surface high pressure centered near 28N67W dominates the W Atlantic. Expansive surface high pressure also dominates the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, with a 1033 mb high is centered over the Azores near 38N26W. This high is producing moderate to fresh trade winds across a large portion of the tropical and subtropical eastern Atlantic waters N of the ITCZ and W of 25W. The stationary front currently over the central Atlantic will weaken and dissipate. The W Atlantic cold front will move E through Mon in conjunction with developing low pres SE of New England. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa