000 AXNT20 KNHC 251705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A combination of strong surface high pressure ridging southward along the U.S. east coast and relatively strong low pressure over northern South America supports winds pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia. The gale force winds will recur each night during the evening and overnight hours through the end of next week while this surface weather pattern persists. For more details please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. This information can also be found at the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine ...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds N to NE winds are forecast to develop this evening for the following areas: Portions of the AGADIR and TARFAYA zones adjacent to the coast of Morocco. Winds will become strong northerly from tonight through Mon night. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N49W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted within 100 nm on either side of the boundaries between 13W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Fair weather prevails across the basin as a 1022 mb surface high centered over the west Atlantic near 28N67W ridges westward across the Gulf. Abundant dry air prevails as ridging at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere extends over the Gulf. A moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin. Sea heights are highest, near 7 ft, in the NW Gulf due to the longer fetch in this area. The high pressure is expected to gradually shift ESE during the next several days. This high will be reinforced by stronger ridging building S along the E coast of the United States during this time frame. Developing low pres over the central plains states will tighten the pressure gradient over the Gulf and cause winds to become fresh to strong on Tue. Surface troughing is expected to develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then migrate W over the Bay of Campeche during the evening and nighttime hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for additional information. Relatively quiet conditions exist across the basin as mid to upper-level ridging maintains a relatively dry and subsident weather pattern over the basin. Trade winds are strongest over the south-central waters N of the coast of Colombia. Winds are expected to reach gale-force again during the evening and overnight hours. Winds will continue pulsing every night through Thu night/Fri morning. See the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details. Otherwise, ridging extending southward from along the east coast of the United States will maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the Caribbean basin through the first half of next week. Winds will be fresh to strong in the Windward Passage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary was analyzed as a cold front from 32N49W to 28N53W, then as a stationary front from that point to the northeast coast of Puerto Rico near 19N66W. Scattered showers are observed along the front. West of these fronts, surface high pressure centered near 28N67W dominates the W Atlantic. Expansive surface high pressure also dominates the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, with a 1032 mb high is centered just S of the Azores near 37N27W. This high is producing moderate to fresh trade winds across a large portion of the tropical and subtropical eastern Atlantic waters N of the ITCZ and W of 25W. The cold front currently over the central Atlantic will slowly shift eastward, then stall, weaken and dissipate. Another cold front will enter the far northwestern waters tonight through Mon in conjunction with developing low pres SE of New England. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA