000 AXNT20 KNHC 230003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast this evening for the eastern portion of the following areas: AGADIR, TARFAYA, and CANARIAS. Winds will subside tonight with near gale conditions persisting on Friday over AGADIR. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from Sierra Leone on the African coast near 09N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 03N24W to 01N37W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 05N between 16W and 18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The cold front that entered the Gulf on Tue has has exited to the SE of the Gulf into the Caribbean. High pressure is building southeastward from the Mississippi Valley and will pass over the NE corner of the Gulf on Fri, over the Bahamas on Sat and to the east of the Bahamas on Sun. Increasing SE return flow will develop over the Gulf during the first half of next week. Return flow over the Gulf will become fresh to strong on Mon and Tue as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure east of the Gulf and developing low pressure over the Central Plains States. A trough will develop in the Yucatan peninsula each evening, and shift westward across the southwestern corner of the Gulf during the overnight hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for additional information. A cold front extends SW from SE Cuba near 20N78W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N89W. This cold front is beginning to weaken and is expected to dissipate overnight. Only patchy cloudiness and isolated showers were observed along and up to 150 nm NW of this boundary. High pressure ridging extending SW from the Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to locally strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea during the next several days. Winds will reach near gale force along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N61W, then continues SE to 26N68W, then across the far SE Bahamas to SE Cuba near 21N76W. This front will continue moving SE and gradually slow down, eventually reaching from 32N48W to Hispaniola on Sun.The fronts will merge, before stalling across the far SE waters during the upcoming weekend. It is possible that another cold front will drop southward from 32N on Monday in conjunction with a developing area of low pressure which will cut off from the mid latitude flow. The front could pass S over the Bahamas as it weakens. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found along and up to 120 nm NW of the front to the N of 26N. Otherwise, broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 60W eastward. A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 36N25W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy