000 AXNT20 KNHC 190518 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 118 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 04N18W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either side of the boundaries between 13W- 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin from the Atlantic with fair weather. Light to gentle winds prevail across the eastern half of the basin while gentle to moderate winds are noted west of 88W. Seas are 3 ft or less in the eastern Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft in the western Gulf. The ridge will shift E through tonight ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast Mon. The front will extend from the Florida Big Bend area to Veracruz Mexico by early Tue, just as a reinforcing push of cold air that will move off the Texas coast. The reinforcing front will overtake the first front by late Tue, accompanied by strong winds and building seas over the northern Gulf. The merged front is expected to sweep the southeast Gulf by early Wed. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf through late Wed as high pressure builds in the wake of the front across the northern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, located north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km/ 3.1 nm exclusion zone around Kick'em Jenny. Please see http://nadma.gd for further information. High pressure centered northeast of the region supports moderate to fresh trade winds over the south central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the northern Caribbean. These conditions will continue over the next several days, except along the northwest coast of Colombia where winds will increase to near- gale force during the overnight hours. A weakening cold front is expected to move through the Yucatan Channel by late Tue. The pressure gradient will tighten ahead of the front, allowing fresh to strong E to SE winds off the central coast of Honduras by Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is approaching from the north across the western Atlantic. At this time, the front extends along 30N mainly west of 70W. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft seas will move east ahead of the front across the waters N of 28N and E of 70W through early Mon. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N50W to 24N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and north of the trough between 50W-60W. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 30N28W. Southerly flow will increase off NE Florida Mon night and Tue ahead of a strong cold front moving into the region by late Tue. Winds will reach gale-force north of 28N on Tue night through Wed night as the front moves east. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the front reaches from Bermuda to the Windward Passage, before stalling and weakening through late week. A weaker front will move eastward north of 28N Thu night into Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA