000 AXNT20 KNHC 180521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N11W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from that position to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 on either side of the ITCZ between 23W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1019 mb high centered east of the northern Bahamas. This pattern continues to induce gentle to moderate southeast winds across the Gulf waters, with seas 3 to 4 ft over the western half of the basin and 3 ft or less in the eastern Gulf. Haze and fog continue to be reported in the northwest Gulf mainly north of 27N and west of 92W. The ridge will shift east Sunday night ahead of a cold front that will move off the Texas coast on Monday. The front will extend from the Florida Big Bend area to Veracruz, Mexico by early Tuesday. A reinforcing front will overtake the first front by late Tuesday, accompanied by strong winds and building seas over the northern Gulf. The merged front sweeps southeast of the Gulf by early Wednesday. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf through mid-week as high pressure builds in the wake of the front across the northern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The undersea volcano Kick 'em Jenny, located north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km / 3.1 nm exclusion zone around Kick 'em Jenny. Please see http://nadma.gd for further information. The pressure gradient generated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered east of the northern Bahamas and lower pressures over northern South America is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the south Caribbean mainly south of 15N and east of 80W. Seas in this area remain 8 to 10 ft per the latest observations. Locally strong to near-gale winds are expected to pulse within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia each night through the next several days. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the basin. A weakening cold front will pass through the Yucatan Basin by late Tuesday. High pressure will build behind the front. Fresh northerly winds will develop by this time across the western half of the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 30N50W to 27N60W to 29N70W. A pre- frontal trough extends from 31N45W to 26N54W to 23N65W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 75 nm on either side of the trough mainly north of 28N. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 12 ft seas will move across the waters north of 28N and east of 70W through today. A ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high just east of the northern Bahamas dominates the waters west of 65W and south of the front and maintains generally light to gentle winds, with seas ranging between 6-9 ft in open waters primarily due to northerly swell. Winds will increase mainly north of 28N by late today as a low pressure moves off the Carolinas coast along with another cold front, which will reach the west Atlantic by Monday morning. Southerly winds will increase to fresh to strong off northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas by late Monday, then increase to near-gale to gale force north of 28N, with building seas by late Tuesday through Wednesday as low pressure moves east. Over the eastern Atlantic, 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 30N28W, and this is maintaining gentle flow over the subtropics and moderate to fresh winds in the deep tropics. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA