000 AXNT20 KNHC 170523 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 123 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from that position to 01N34W and then extends to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered showers is noted between 50 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Fairly quiet weather conditions prevail across the basin as a surface ridge extends across the whole area. The ridge is anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 28N84W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin with this pattern. Sea heights are fairly low, except over the northwestern Gulf where buoys are recording 6 ft seas due to the longer fetch. No significant change in this weather pattern is expected through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The undersea volcano Kick 'em Jenny, located north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km / 3.1 nm exclusion zone around Kick 'em Jenny. Please see http://nadma.gd for further information. The tail end of a weakening stationary front is producing a few showers over portions of Haiti, the Windward Passage, and eastern Cuba. Otherwise, fair weather exists across the remainder of the region with only the typical patches of clouds moving westward within the trade wind flow. The trade winds are strongest in the usual location near the coast of Colombia, due to the pressure gradient between modest high pressure to the north of the area and lower pressure over northern South America. Sea heights are also highest near the coast of Colombia, up to 10 ft. The global models do not show any significant change from the current weather pattern this weekend, therefore little change is forecast. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the discussion area near 32N48W and it extends to the Windward Passage. Scattered showers are likely within 180 n mi west of the front. Weak surface high pressure is located to the west of the frontal boundary, supported by a 1020 mb high just northeast of the Bahamas near 26N73W. Over the central and eastern Atlantic, surface high pressure dominates the region anchored by a 1024 mb high located near 28N37W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA