000 AXNT20 KNHC 162347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 747 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N14W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from that position to 01N34W and then extends to the coast of Brazil near 01S50W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 180 n mi north of the ITCZ between 25W and 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Fairly quiet weather conditions prevail across the Gulf of Mexico today with most of the area experiencing light southeastely or southerly flow on the west side of surface high pressure that is centered over Florida and the western Atlantic. Sea heights are fairly low, except over the northwestern Gulf where buoys are recording 6 ft seas due to the longer fetch. Satellite images show only patches of clouds, mostly over the western half of the area, west of about 88W. There could be a few embedded showers near the northern Gulf coast, in association with low pressure that is centered over the central U.S. No significant change in this weather pattern is expected this weekend, so mostly fair weather and light to moderate winds are forecast to continue. CARIBBEAN SEA... The undersea volcano Kick 'em Jenny, located north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km / 3.1 nm exclusion zone around Kick 'em Jenny. Please see http://nadma.gd for further information. The tail end of a weakening stationary front is producing some clouds and showers over portions of Haiti, the Windward Passage, and eastern Cuba. Otherwise, fair weather exists across the remainder of the region with only the typical patches of clouds moving westward within the trade wind flow. The trade winds are strongest in the usual location near the coast of Colombia, due to the pressure gradient between modest high pressure to the north of the area and lower pressure over northern South America. Sea heights are also highest near the coast of Colombia, up to 10 ft. The global models do not show any significant change from the current weather pattern this weekend, so little change is forecast. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N51W and it extends to 26N60W. The front then becomes stationary from 26N60W to the Windward Passage. Scattered showers are likely within 180 n mi west of the front. Weak surface high pressure is located to the west of the frontal boundary, supported by a 1020 mb high over central Florida and a 1021 mb high just north of the Bahamas near 26N73W. Over the central and eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic, surface high pressure dominates the region anchored by a 1025 mb high located near 29N38W. Although a surface trough is located near the high from 32N33W to 28N26W, this feature is not producing any notable weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ era/jc