000 AXNT20 KNHC 161144 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 744 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N16W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 180 n mi north of the ITCZ between 32W and 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure resides over the NE Gulf near the Florida Big Bend as well as the Bahamas. The high is generally maintaining light to moderate E to SE winds over the NE half of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds have already developed over the SE half of the Gulf. The high will drift slowly SE from the NE Gulf over the SW N Atlantic waters near the Bahamas and Straits of Florida by early Saturday morning, then head E and weaken S of Bermuda through Monday. Nevertheless, the high will continue to ridge E into the Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. Return flow on the western half of the basin will remain moderate to fresh on late tonight ahead of an area of low pressure developing in the central plains. This low will head ESE into the Atlantic near Cape Hatteras on Sat and Sat night. Stronger low pressure moving E through the southern plains will drag a cold front into the western Gulf on Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The undersea volcano Kick 'em Jenny, located north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km / 3.1 nm exclusion zone around Kick 'em Jenny. Please see http://nadma.gd for further information. Weak 1021 mb high pressure covers the NE Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas. This relatively weak ridge is primarily generating moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the basin, except for fresh to strong winds along the N coasts of Colombia and Venezuela. Relatively dry weather prevails over the basin except for some residual cloudiness and isolated showers associated with a stationary front that dissipated Thu morning. The cloudiness and showers are observed near the Windward Passage and between Cuba and Honduras. Remnant moisture left behind continues to support isolated showers over the Windward Passage and western Caribbean. This weather regime will remain in place through early next week as the high pressure to the north remains weakened by low pres systems moving eastward from the United States mainland. Relatively dry conditions prevail and will continue through this weekend as mid to upper-level ridging from the east resides over the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Deep layer low pressure centered between Newfoundland and Labrador supports a cold front that extends SW from 32N54W to 25N62W to 21N69W, then continues as a weakening cold front to the Dominican Republic near 20N71W. A secondary weakening cold front extends from 31N59W to 26N65W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and up to 30 nm NW of the cold front N of 23N. Cloudiness and patchy rain are found along and up to 150 nm NW of the front N of 23N. Fresh to strong SW winds are observed along and up to 90 nm E of the front N of 29N. The secondary weakening cold front will merge with the primary cold front tonight. The combined front will then weaken into a trough this weekend. High pressure will shift E from the NE Gulf of Mexico behind the front later today and Fri, then head E and weaken S of Bermuda this weekend. A broad area of high pressure prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 29N40W. The high is maintaining moderate to fresh northeast winds over the tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ between 25W and the Windward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy/Cangialosi