000 AXNT20 KNHC 151802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 0N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 17W and 34W and from 02S to 04N W of 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1024 mb centered just SW of the Floirda Panhandle near 28N87W is generally maintaining light to moderate N to NE winds E of 90W and E to SE winds of the same magnitude over the western half of the Gulf. The high will migrate southeast to central Florida by Friday morning then over the SW N Atlantic waters by early Saturday morning, and is forecast to dissipate E of the Bahamas late night on Saturday. Light to moderate northeast winds will generally veer to SE today then to S on Fri as the high shifts ESE. Return flow on the western half of the basin will become moderate to fresh on late tonight ahead of an area of low pressure developing in the southern plains. CARIBBEAN SEA... The frontal boundary over the NW Caribbean has dissipated and NE winds has diminished to moderate. Remnant moisture associated with it continue to support isolated showers in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong trades prevail over the south-central Caribbean waters being the strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. These winds will hold through the upcoming weekend increasing to 30 kt at night off Colombia. Moderate trades dominate elsewhere across the basin. Relatively dry conditions prevail and will continue during the weekend being supported by a mid-level ridge that will move from the west. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level low centered between Newfoudland and Nova Scotia, supports a broad area of low pressure with associated gale force winds N of the area. A cold front extends from this low, which tail extends along 30N62W to 26N67W. A second cold front extends from 30N57W to 21N68W to the approches of the Windward Passage. Scattered showers are within 120 nm ahead of the front N of 22N. Fresh to strong southerly winds are within 305 nm ahead of the front N of 26N supported by a stronger pressure gradient between the front and broad high pressure over the the central Atlc. The reinforcing front will merge with the primary front Friday evening. The combined front will then dissipate into a trough during the weekend. High pressure will shift E from the NE Gulf of Mexico behind the front later today and Fri, then continue east into the west Atlantic along 27N this weekend. A broad area of high pressure prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 28N41W. The high is maintaining moderate to fresh northeast winds over the tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ between 30W and the Windward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos