000
AXNT20 KNHC 151159
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
     
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W 
to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 01N35W to the coast 
of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is present within 120 nm either side of the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ E of 35W and W of 44W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered just S of Louisiana near 28N89W is 
generally maintaining light to moderate N to NE winds E of 90W 
and E to SE winds of the same magnitude over the western half of 
the Gulf. The high will migrate southeast over the northeast 
Gulf and then over the western Atlantic during the next 48 
hours, eventually reaching the Bahamas by Sat evening. Moderate 
to fresh northeast winds will generally veer to SE today then to 
S on Fri as the high shifts ESE. Return flow on the west side of 
the high will become moderate to fresh on Friday. The strongest 
return flow will be concentrated W of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from the eastern tip of 
Cuba near 20N74W SW to NE Honduras near 15N84W. Scattered to 
isolated showers are observed in the Gulf of Honduras. The front 
will continue to weaken through dissipation tonight. Fresh 
northerly winds are observed over the NW Caribbean west of the 
front while fresh to strong trades continue over the south-
central Caribbean waters being the strongest winds along the 
coast of Colombia. Moderate trades dominate elsewhere across the 
basin. Relatively dry conditions prevail and will continue 
during the next several days as mid to upper-level ridging 
extending over the basin from the east maintains a benign 
weather pattern. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N59W to 21N71W where it transition 
to a weakening stationary front that enters the Caribbean 
through the eastern tip of Cuba continuing to the eastern Gulf 
of Honduras. Scattered to isolated showers are within 120 nm 
ahead of the front. Fresh to strong southerly winds are within 
305 nm ahead of the front N of 25N supported by a stronger 
pressure gradient between the front and broad high pressure over 
the the central Atlc. A reinforcing cold front extending from 
30N66W to 27N72W will merge with the primary front today. The 
combined front will then dissipate into a trough by the end of 
the week. High pressure will shift E from the NE Gulf of Mexico 
behind the front later today and Fri, then continue east into 
the west Atlantic along 27N this weekend. A broad area of high 
pressure prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic, 
anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 28N41W. The high is 
maintaining moderate to fresh northeast winds over the tropical 
Atlantic north of the ITCZ between 30W and the Windward Islands.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos