000 AXNT20 KNHC 150456 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the African coast near 07N13W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 01N30W to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 02N to 05N between 16W and 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered just S of Louisiana near 28N90W is generally maintaining moderate N to NE winds over the Gulf waters. Winds are moderate to fresh over the SE Gulf and Bay of Campeche, where a tighter pressure gradient is supporting stronger winds. The high will migrate southeast over the northeast Gulf and then over the western Atlantic during the next 48 hours, eventually reaching the Bahamas by Sat evening. Moderate to fresh northeast winds will generally veer to SE on Thu then to S on Fri as the high shifts ESE. Return flow on the west side of the high will become moderate to fresh on Friday. The strongest return flow will be concentrated W of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to the coast of NE Honduras near 16N84W. The front is weakening and will dissipate tonight. Moderate to fresh trades are observed north of the front. Fresh to strong trades are observed W of the front as well as over the waters south of 18N and east of 75W, where lower pressure over South America is augmenting the pressure gradient. Elsewhere, light to moderate trades and relatively dry conditions prevail and will continue during the next several days as mid to upper-level ridging extending over the basin from the east maintains a benign weather pattern. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front crosses the west-central Atlantic from 32N57W to 26N68W to the coast of NE Cuba near 21N76W. Winds along the front have weakened in response to the approach of a cold front from the NW. The cold front curves SW from 32N70W to 28N76W, then continues as a weakening cold front to 27N78W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and up to 180 nm NW of the stationary front N of 22N. Strong convection is occurring N of 22N along the S side of the stationary front. There is no significant convection currently associated with the cold front. The cold front pushing SE from the Carolinas and Georgia will cause the stationary front to begin moving east again tonight before the two boundaries merge. The combined front will then dissipate into a trough by the end of the week. High pressure will shift E from the NE Gulf of Mexico behind the front on Thu and Fri, then continue east into the west Atlantic along 27N this weekend. A broad area of high pressure prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 27N43W. The high is maintaining moderate to fresh northeast winds over the tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ between 30W and the Windward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy