000 AXNT20 KNHC 150003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 101 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea on the African coast near 09N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 04N20W to 04N25W to 03N30W to 03N37W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 03N between 18W and 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered over Louisiana is generally maintaining moderate NE winds over the Gulf waters except over the Bay of Campeche, where a tighter pressure gradient over southern Mexico is supporting fresh winds. The high will migrate southeast from Louisiana to the northeast Gulf during the next 24 hours, then to the Bahamas by Sat evening. Moderate to fresh northeast winds will generally veer to SE on Thu then to S on Fri as the high shifts ESE. Return flow on the west side of the high will become moderate to fresh on Friday. The strongest return flow will be concentrated W of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to the coast of N central Honduras near 16N86W. The front is weakening and will dissipate tonight. Moderate to fresh trades are observed north of the front. Fresh to strong trades are observed over the waters south of 18N and east of 75W, where lower pressure over South America is augmenting the pressure gradient. Elsewhere, light to moderate trades and relatively dry conditions prevail and will continue during the next several days as mid to upper-level ridging extending over the basin from the east maintains a benign weather pattern. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front crosses the west-central Atlantic from 32N55W to 29N63W to the coast of NE Cuba near 21N77W. Winds along the front have weakened in response to the approach of a secondary cold front from the NW. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed along and up to 180 nm on either side of the front. The convection associated with the front will shift eastward and diminish tonight as the front weakens. The secondary cold front pushing SE from the Carolinas and Georgia will cause the northern part of the front to begin moving east again by tonight before the two boundaries merge. The combined front will then dissipate into a trough by the end of the week. High pressure will build from the northwest behind the front by tonight and shift east into the west Atlantic along 27N this weekend. A broad area of high pressure prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 27N42W. The high is maintaining moderate to fresh northeast winds over the tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ between 30W and the Windward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA