000 AXNT20 KNHC 141701 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 101 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Liberia on the African coast near 09N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 03S40W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered across the Central Plains is generally maintaining moderate NE winds over the Gulf waters except over the Bay of Campeche, where a tighter pressure gradient over southern Mexico is supporting fresh winds. The high will migrate southeast from the Central Plains to the northeast Gulf during the next 24 hours. Moderate to fresh northeast winds will gradually veer to southeast as the high pressure moves. Return flow on the west side of the high will become moderate to fresh on Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N78W to Belize near 18N88W. The front will dissipate through today. Fresh to strong trades are observed north of the front as well as the waters south of 18N and east of 80W. A pressure gradient is supporting fresh to locally strong winds mainly south of 14N between 53W-60W. Elsewhere, light to moderate trades and relatively dry conditions prevail and will continue during the next several days as mid to upper-level ridging extending over the basin from the southeast maintains a benign weather pattern. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary extends across the west-central Atlantic analyzed as a stationary front from 31N60W to 21N77W. Winds along the front continue to subside as the parent low lifts farther north. Scattered showers are observed along and up to 60 nm on either side of the front. The convection associated with the front will shift eastward and diminish tonight as the front weakens. A secondary cold front pushing SE from the Mid Atlantic States will cause the northern part of the front to begin moving east again by tonight before the two boundaries merge. The combined front will then dissipate into a trough by the end of the week. High pressure will build from the northwest behind the front by tonight and shift east into the west Atlantic along 27N this weekend. A broad area of high pressure prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 27N41W. The high is maintaining moderate to fresh northeast winds over the tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ between 30W and the Windward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA