000 AXNT20 KNHC 140515 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 114 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... None. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Liberia on the African coast near 07N11W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 01N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. No significant convection is currently associated with these features. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front exited to the SE of the basin on Tue. Residual troughing over the SW Bay of Campeche is maintaining an area of cloudiness over the SW Gulf S of 27N and W of 90W. High pressure ridging S from the Central Plains is generally maintaining moderate NE winds over the Gulf. A tighter pressure gradient over southern Mexico is supporting fresh winds over the Bay of Campeche. The high will migrate SE from the central plains to the NE Gulf by Fri. Moderate to fresh NE winds will gradually veer to SE as the high pressure migrates to the NE Gulf. Return flow on the west side of the high will become moderate to fresh on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N78W to Belize near 18N88W. The front is slowing down and will stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua on Wed, then dissipate by Thursday. Fresh to strong trades are observed N of the cold front as well as the waters S of 18N and east of 80W. Deep layer low pres will linger near the NE United States during the next few days. This will keep the ridge N of the Caribbean weak and cap winds along the coast of Colombia generally between 20 and 25 kt during the next few days. Otherwise, light to moderate trades and relatively dry conditions are expected to prevail during the next several days as mid to upper-level ridging extending over the basin from the SE maintains a benign weather pattern. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N57W to 25N67W to eastern Cuba near 20.5N74.5W. Winds along the front continue to subside as the parent low centered S of Maine lifts farther N. Scattered showers are present along and up to 60 nm NW of the front N of 28N. The convection associated with the front will shift eastward and diminish tonight as the front continues slowly pushing east. The front is slowing down and will stall from 32N56W to 26N65W to E Cuba tonight. A secondary cold front pushing SE from the Mid Atlc States will cause the northern part of the front to begin moving east again by Wednesday night before the two boundaries merge. The combined front will then dissipate into a trough by the end of the week. High pres will build from the NW behind the front late Wed and shift E into the W Atlc along 27N Fri and Sat. Otherwise, a broad area of high pressure prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 27N38W. The high is maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ between 30W and the Windward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy