000 AXNT20 KNHC 121151 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 750 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front extends across the northern half of the basin from 30N88W to 26N97W. Expect northernly gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet, from 22N to 24N W of 96W. The gale-force wind conditions are forecast to last until the early morning hours of Tuesday as the front moves away from the area. Please read the latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning... A cold front will extend across the western Atlantic Ocean this afternoon from 31N77W 25N80W. Expect gale-force W-to-NW winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, to the N of 28N W of the cold front to 80W. These conditions will end by Tuesday afternoon. Please read the latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W, to 02N30W, and 01N38W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 06N southward from 30W eastward. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... One surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana, to 26N95W in the Gulf of Mexico. A second surface trough extends from Apalachee Bay, Florida to 24N90W in the south central Gulf of Mexico. A cold front passes through south central Louisiana to 27N97W at the Texas coast. This is the cold front that is forecast to move through the Gulf of Mexico, and reach central Florida by tomorrow morning. Broken multilayered clouds have been moving across the Gulf of Mexico during the day, and now cover the area that is to the NW of the line 27N82W 19N96W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong rainshowers are south of 27N from 85W eastward, in the Straits of Florida, and in the Atlantic Ocean to the west of the line that passes through 32N69W, to the eastern side of Andros Island in the Bahamas. The current NW Gulf of Mexico cold front will move southeastward across the entire basin through Monday, and across the Straits of Florida on Monday evening. Brief gale-force winds are expected behind the front in the far western Gulf on Monday, and in the SW Gulf on Monday afternoon and night. Strong northerly winds elsewhere in the wake of the front will diminish from the NW through Monday night. A ridge will extend from NE Texas to the Straits of Florida on Tuesday, then high pressure will become centered in the NE Gulf from Thursday through Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the waters east of 80W, except for near gale-force winds just to the north of the A-B-C islands expected through Tuesday night. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Monday night. The front will reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Tuesday, stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua on Tuesday night, and dissipate by Thursday. High pressure will build southeastward from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea beginning on Thursday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N39W to 31N42W. A stationary front continues from 31N42W to 28N50W to 26N60W. The upper level trough that was in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico 24 hours ago now is in the western Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward between 55W and 71W. A surface trough, that is supporting the thunderstorms that are to the east of the NW Bahamas, will shift E of the area on Monday. A cold front, entering the waters off NE Florida this afternoon, will be preceded by and followed by near gale-to-gale force winds N of 28N from Monday evening through Tuesday morning. The front will reach from 30N65W to E Cuba on Tuesday, stalling from 26N65W to E Cuba through Tuesday night. High pressure building from the NW will cause the northern part of the front to begin moving E once again on Wednesday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/MT