000 AXNT20 KNHC 120143 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 CORRECTED GALE WARNINGS Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning... A cold front will move into the western Atlantic Ocean by Monday night, along 31N77W 26N80W. Expect gale-force W-to-NW winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, to the N of 30N W of the cold front to 79W. The gale-force wind conditions will end on Tuesday night. Please read the latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... The current NW Gulf of Mexico cold front will move to the line from 30N83W to 25N89W to 21N97W on Monday morning. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet, from 22N to 24N W of 96W. The gale-force wind conditions are forecast to last until the early morning hours of Tuesday. Please read the latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to the Equator along 36W, to 01S45W, to the Equator along 50W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 08N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Residual moisture, and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level wind flow is mostly westerly. One surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana. A second surface trough is in the Texas coastal waters. A cold front is in the Texas coastal plains. This is the cold front that is forecast to move through the Gulf of Mexico, and reach central Florida by tomorrow morning, and clear the entire Gulf of Mexico, and reach SE Cuba by Tuesday morning. Broken multilayered clouds have been moving across the Gulf of Mexico during the day, and now cover the area from 22N northward. The Texas coastal plains cold front will move off the coast by early this evening. It will move southeastward across the entire basin through Mon, and across the Straits of Florida on Mon evening. Brief gale force winds are expected behind the front over the far western gulf on Mon, and in the SW gulf Mon afternoon and night. Strong northerly winds elsewhere in the wake of the front will diminish from the NW through Mon night. A ridge will extend from NE Texas to the Straits of Florida on Tue, then slide eastward while developing into a high center of about 1025 mb over the NE Gulf by Thu, and shift slightly southeastward on Fri. At that time, a ridge will extend from the high center westward to NE Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 11/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.37 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and 0.12 in Trinidad. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the waters east of 80W, except for near gale force winds just to the north of the A-B-C islands expected through Tue night. A strong cold front will enter the Yucatan channel and far NW Caribbean late Mon afternoon or early evening, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue, stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua Tue night, and dissipate by Thu. Strong high pres will build southeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to over the NW Caribbean beginning on Thu night. Strong NE winds are expected to develop to the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage and vicinity waters Fri and Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N42W to 28N49W. A stationary front continues from 28N49W to 26N60W. The upper level trough that was in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico 24 hours ago now is in the western Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between 55W and 72W. The area of rainshowers, that is associated with an upper level trough, is capable of producing strong gusty winds and frequent lightning as it moves eastward quickly through Monday, ahead of the next cold front. The next cold front will emerge off the Georgia and NE Florida coasts late tonight into early Mon. The front will reach from near 31N79W to West Palm Beach early Mon afternoon, from near 31N75W to NW Cuba Mon evening, from near 31N67W to 26N70W to eastern Cuba early on Tue before stalling from near 27N65W to central Cuba Tue night. The cold front will gradually weaken through Thu as high pres builds eastward over the area. Minimal to strong gale force winds are expected over some areas both ahead and behind the front Mon through early Tue afternoon. In the wake of the front, relatively weak high pres will build W to E along 27N through early Wed as yet another strong cold front begins to advance across the NW waters of the basin. This front will be preceded by fresh to strong southwest winds and mostly strong W to NW winds to the N of 27N as it quickly moves across the forecast waters to just east of the basin early on Thu. High pres will build from W to E across the central waters in the wake of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT