000 AXNT20 KNHC 110526 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1226 AM EST Sun Mar 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING NE Gale-force winds are present, from 11N to 14N between 70W and 77W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela, in the coastal waters of Colombia, with sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet. The gale-force wind conditions will last for 12 hours or so, ending in the morning. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... The 36-hour forecast consists of: a cold front from 30N83W to 25N89W to 22N98W to 19N96W. Expect NW to N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet, from 22N to 24N W of 96W. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... The 48-hour forecast consists of: a cold front from 31N76W to 26N80W. Expect SW-to-W gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet, N of 29N within 90 NM E of the front. Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to 01N34W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N southward between 09W and 34W, and from 10N southward between 52W and 60W. Rainshowers are possible from 05N southward between 34W and 52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is moving into the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 26N80W 25N85W 24N89W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 22N to 26N between 77W in the Bahamas and 84W in NW Cuba. Rainshowers are possible also in the Atlantic Ocean, from 22N northward between 70W and 80W. A complex of thunderstorms will exit the SE Gulf this morning. A cold front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon, then move SE across the entire basin through Monday, and across the Straits of Florida on Monday evening. A brief gale is expected behind the front in the far W Gulf on Monday, then SW gulf late on Monday. Strong northerly winds elsewhere, in the wake of the front, will diminish from the NW through Monday night. A ridge will extend from NE Texas to the Straits of Florida on Tuesday, and shift NE from Wednesday through Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad surface cyclonic wind flow is present in the Caribbean Sea. An inverted trough in the surface pressure analysis runs from 18N75W off the coast of SW Haiti, to 11N76W. The SW-most part of an Atlantic Ocean stationary front reaches NW Haiti. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 10/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 4.46 in Montego Bay in Jamaica. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the waters east of 80W, except minimal gale force early this morning off the NW coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela. A cold front will enter the Yucatan channel and far NW Caribbean late on Monday, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Tuesday, stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua Tuesday night, and dissipate by Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N49W to 24N63W. A stationary front continues from 24N63W to NW Haiti. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the north of the line that passes through 32N36W, to 26N50W, to 23N60W, to 22N80W. An eastern Atlantic Ocean dissipating cold front is now inland, passing through Morocco into the Western Sahara. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean between the two frontal boundaries. One 1024 mb high pressure center is near 29N31W. A second 1024 mb high pressure center is near 26N48W. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 30N69W. The stationary front from 24N65W to Haiti will weaken through early today. Remnants of the front will lift northward this afternoon and tonight, ahead of another cold front that will emerge off the NE Florida coast late tonight. This cold front will extend from near 31N75W to northwest Cuba on Monday night, stall from 27N65W to central Cuba on Tuesday night, and gradually weaken through Thursday as high pressure builds eastward over the area. Gale force winds are expected N of 29N just E of this front on Monday night and Tuesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT