000 AXNT20 KNHC 110024 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 UPDATED FOR THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ, AND THE GULF OF MEXICO Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING Gale-force winds are forecast to start soon, from 11N to 14N between 73W and 77W in the coastal waters of Colombia, with sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet. The gale-force wind conditions will last for 12 hours or so, ending in the early afternoon. Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to 03N30W, crossing the Equator along 41W, and along the Equator to 50W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N southward from 38W eastward, and from 10N southward between 53W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is moving through the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N southward from 87W eastward. An E-to-W oriented surface trough is along 26N83W 25N90W. Rainshowers are possible also from 26N to 30N between 80W and 87W, including across Florida, and in the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward between 70W and 80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in coastal sections of Cuba from 21N to 23N between 76W and 78W. A trough in the central and eastern sections of the Gulf will weaken slowly through Sun afternoon. Its associated numerous shower and thunderstorm activity will translate eastward through Sun night while decreasing. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Sun afternoon, then move southeastward across the entire basin through early Mon and across the Straits of Florida on Mon evening. A brief instance of gale force winds is possible behind the front over the far western gulf on Mon and far SW gulf waters on Mon night. Strong northerly winds elsewhere in the wake of the front will diminish from the NW through Mon night. A ridge will extend from northeast Texas to the Straits of Florida on Tue, and shift NE Wed through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad surface cyclonic wind flow is present in the Caribbean Sea. An inverted trough in the surface pressure analysis runs from NW Haiti to the coastal sections of Colombia near 11N75W. The SW-most part of an Atlantic Ocean stationary front reaches NW Haiti. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 10/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 4.46 in Montego Bay in Jamaica. Fresh to strong trades will continue across the waters east of 80W, except increasing to minimal gale force during the tonight off the NW coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong SE winds across the far northwestern part of the sea, including the Yucatan Channel, will slowly diminish through late tonight. A strong cold front will enter the Yucatan channel and far NW Caribbean on Mon, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Mon night, and stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua on Tue, and dissipate by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N50W to 26N60W and 23N66W. A stationary front continues from 23N66W to NW Haiti. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that is NW of the line that passes through 32N43W 26N51W 22N62W. An eastern Atlantic Ocean dissipating cold front passes through 32N09W to 27N15W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean between the two frontal boundaries. A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 30N32W. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 26N48W. The current stationary front will weaken tonight into early Sun. Remnants of the front will lift northward on Sun and Sun night, ahead of another cold front that will emerge off the NE Florida coast on Sun night. This cold front will extend from near 31N75W to northwest Cuba late Mon, stall from 27N65W to central Cuba on and gradually weaken through Thu as high pres builds eastward over the area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT