000 AXNT20 KNHC 101202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 702 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A recent scatterometer pass indicate minimal gale force across the Gulf of Venezuela. A Gale Warning is in effect across the area from 11N to 13N between 70W and 77W, including the waters near the coast of Colombia. The sea heights will range from 10-12 feet. The gale-force wind conditions will dissipate early this morning, and then they will start again tonight. Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W, to 04N20W to 01N30W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to 02S44W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N betwen 11W-17W. Similar convection is within about 180 nm N of ITCZ axis between 26W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1021 mb located E of Florida extends a ridge across the Gulf region. An area of showers with embedded tstms is currently noted across the northern Gulf, covering mainly the area N of 25N between 85W and 95W, and this convective activity is associated with an upper-level trough. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Sun morning, and race SE across the entire gulf waters through Sun night, passing through the Straits of Florida on Mon afternoon. Strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will diminish from the northwest through Mon night. Seas will reach 8 to 10 ft over the western Gulf waters under the stronger winds. A ridge will extend from northeast Texas to the Straits of Florida on Tue, and shift northeast through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trades will continue across the waters east of 80W, except increasing to minimal gale force during the overnight hours off the northwest coast of Colombia through Sun night, and over the Gulf of Venezuela early this morning, and tnight. Please see Special Features section. The largest areal extent of the strong winds over the central Caribbean is expected over this weekend with high pressure centered NE of the region. As the high pressure shifts east early next week, the wind speeds over the Caribbean will decrease. A cold front will pass east through the Yucatan Basin on Mon, reaching from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Mon night, stalling from Hispaniola to Nicaragua on Tue night, and dissipating on Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 mb high pressure is located E of Florida near 28N77W and extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front stretches from 31N56W to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong NE winds are noted. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are seen along the frontal boundary. The front will stall across the tropical waters north of the Greater Antilles tonight. Remnants of the front will lift north on Sun ahead of another cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast on Sun night. This second cold front will extend from near 31N75W to northwest Cuba late Mon, and stall from 25N65W to east Cuba on Wed. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop ahead of this cold front over the waters N of 28N on Sun, and expand across the waters W of 65W, N of 25N Sun night into Mon. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front. Another 1021 mb high pressure is over the central Atlantic near 24N52W. Farther E, a weakening cold front crosses the Canary Islands. Seas of up to 13-14 ft are noted per altimeter data across the waters N of 20N E of 30W in northerly swell. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR