000 AXNT20 KNHC 100517 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1217 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N12W, to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W, to 04N20W, 01N30W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to 02S44W near the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 25N97W near the NE coast of Mexico, to 17N93W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Rainshowers, in general, are possible within 250 nm on either side of the line from 23N80W in the Straits of Florida, to 25N89W, to the border of Texas and Mexico near 26N97W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 29N80W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will move off the Texas coast late on Saturday night, and race southeastward across the entire Gulf waters on Sunday and Sunday night, passing through the Straits of Florida on Monday afternoon. Strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will diminish from the northwest through Monday night. A ridge will extend from northeast Texas to the Straits of Florida on Tuesday, and shift northeastward on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad surface cyclonic wind flow is present in the Caribbean Sea. An inverted trough in the surface pressure analysis runs from the Windward Passage to the coastal sections of Colombia near 11N75W. The SW-most part of an Atlantic Ocean cold front reaches SE Cuba. Isolated moderate rainshowers are present across Jamaica. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the waters east of 80W, except increasing to near gale-force during the overnight hours through Sunday night off the NW coast of Colombia. A cold front will pass eastward, through the Yucatan Basin on Monday morning, reaching from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Monday night, stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua on Tuesday, and dissipate on Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western/central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N57W to 26N64W to SE Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that is within 600 nm to the NW of the line that passes through 32N50W, to 24N59W, to Puerto Rico. An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N12W to 30N14W. The cold front is dissipating from 30N14W to 25N20W and 22N27W. Rainshowers are possible from 25N northward from 40W eastward. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 24N52W, between the two cold fronts. A cold front, from 25N65W to eastern Cuba, will reach from 23N65W to the Windward Passage on Saturday, and then stall across the tropical waters north of the Greater Antilles on Saturday night. Remnants of the front will lift northward on Sunday, ahead of another cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast on Sunday night. This cold front will extend from near 31N73W to northwest Cuba late on Monday, and stalling from 25N65W to east Cuba on Wednesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT