000 AXNT20 KNHC 091722 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1222 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 09N13W and extends to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from that location to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 n mi north of the ITCZ between 21W and 27W. Similar convection exists within 90 n mi north of the ITCZ between 34W and 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A band of clouds and embedded showers are occurring over the southern Gulf waters south of 25N. This activity is associated with an upper-level jet and a surface trough that is located near the coast of Mexico. Quiet weather exists across the northern Gulf waters supported by dry air aloft and a 1024 mb high pressure system centered over the southeastern United States. The surface wind flow is generally out of the east and mainly in the 10 to 15 kt range, except for slightly stronger winds over the southwestern waters. Sea heights are highest over the western Gulf, near 6 ft, due to the longer fetch. The high currently over the southeast U.S. is expected to shift eastward during the next couple of days, which should cause southerly flow to develop across the area on Saturday. The next cold front is expected to move over the northwestern Gulf waters on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fairly quiet conditions exists across the Caribbean today. Patches of low-level clouds and embedded showers are occurring across the area. This activity is most concentrated between 67W and 80W and over the far northwestern waters. The trade wind flow is strongest in the climatological-favored location, near the coast of Colombia, where winds are near 25 kt and seas are up to 10 ft. The trade wind flow is expected to increase a little during the next couple of days over the central and eastern Caribbean as high pressure builds to the north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two cold fronts are moving eastward across the western Atlantic. The leading boundary is marked by a line of showers and thunderstorms extending from 32N59W to eastern Cuba. The second boundary, a reinforcing cold front, is not producing much shower activity along its axis that extends from 32N65W to 27N73W. Fresh northwesterly winds are occurring behind the fronts. The central Atlantic is dominated by surface high pressure anchored by a 1022 mb high located near 23N50W. Over the eastern Atlantic, a weakening cold front enters the area near 32N14W and extends southwestward to 24N26W. No significant weather is occurring along this feature. Looking ahead to the weekend, the fronts mentioned are expected to gradually dissipate allowing the subtropical ridge to become established across the basin. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Cangialosi