000 AXNT20 KNHC 090522 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1222 AM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 06N11W to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 17N-21N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1022 mb located south of Louisiana extends its ridge across the basin producing moderate to fresh anticyclonic across the area. Sea heights are up to 8 ft across the Bay of Campeche based on altimeter data, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. The ridge will shift east from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Mexico by this evening as southerly return flow spreads east across the entire Gulf ahead of the next cold front that will move into the northern waters by late Saturday. This cold front will race across the Gulf waters on Sunday, then passing through the Straits of Florida by late Monday. Strong northerly winds will prevail behind the front on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from central Cuba to south of Cozumel, Mexico. A narrow line of showers is associated with the front affecting the area north of 20N and west of 83W. Patches of low level moisture with embedded showers are noted across the basin, particularly between 75W-82W affecting Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage. Another band of low-level moisture is enhancing convection over Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. The cold front will continue moving southeast overnight across the northwest Caribbean while weakening. Latest satellite derived winds and surface observations indicate fresh winds over the east and central Caribbean south of 14N between 65W-76W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the basin. Northerly swell propagating south through the northeast Caribbean passages, and the tropical waters east of the Lesser Antilles, will gradually subside from the north through this evening. Near gale force winds will pulse during the overnight hours along the northwest coast of Colombia through the weekend. A new cold front is expected to move southeast through the Yucatan Basin on Monday and extend from east Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N62W to central Cuba near 22N77W. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong southwest winds within about 120 nm east of the front. Fresh to strong northwest winds are just off the Florida coast. Scattered showers are associated with the front, which is forecast to reach a position from 31N61W to east Cuba today, then stall across the tropical waters north of the Greater Antilles by tonight and into Saturday. Remnants of the front will lift north on Saturday night and Sunday ahead of another cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sunday. Near gale-force southerly flow will develop north of the Bahamas on Sunday ahead of this front. To the east, a 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 24N54W. This system will move eastward over the next 24 hours reaching a position near 26N49W. Another cold front extends over the east Atlantic from 31N21W to 24N44W. Fresh to strong winds are observed per scatterometer data on either side of the front mainly north of 26N. A 1018 mb high is centered near 22N31W and a 1020 mb high is centered south of the Canary Islands near 27N17W. The current large northerly swell will subside slowly across the open waters through early this weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA