000
AXNT20 KNHC 081744
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 PM EST Thu Mar 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
     
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 07N11W
to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N30W to 02N40W
to the Equator at 50W. No significant convection is noted at this
time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure, with a 1026 mb over eastern Texas, extends a ridge
across the Gulf region producing moderate to fresh northerly winds
in the north-central Gulf waters, with seas of 3-5 ft. Moderate to
fresh NW-N winds are still noted over the southwest Gulf, with
seas of up to 9 ft based on altimeter data. Cold air stratocumulus
clouds are seen on visible satellite imagery over the eastern Gulf
while mainly low level clouds with likely embedded patches of
light rain are affecting the western Gulf and the eastern slopes
of the Sierra Madre Mountains. The ridge will shift east from the
Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Mexico by Fri evening as southerly
return flow spreads east across the entire Gulf of Mexico ahead of
the next cold front moving into the northern waters late Sat
night. This cold front will race across the Gulf waters on Sun and
Sun night, passing through the Straits of Florida late Mon with
strong northerly winds behind the front on Sun and Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front has entered the NW Caribbean and extends from central 
Cuba to near Cozumel, Mexico. A narrow line of showers and tstms
is associated with the front. Patches of low level moisture with 
embedded showers are noted across the basin, particularly across 
Jamaica and eastern Cuba. The cold front will move SE today across
the NW Caribbean while weakening. Latest satellite derived winds 
and surface observations indicate fresh to strong winds over the 
central Caribbean, except off the coast of Colombia where winds 
are near gale force. Light to gentle winds prevail over the 
western Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds are blowing over 
the eastern Caribbean as well as the tropical N Atlc forecast 
zones. Northerly swell propagating south through the northeast 
Caribbean passages, and the tropical waters east of the Lesser 
Antilles, will gradually subside from the north through Fri night.
Fresh to strong trades will continue east of 80W, except 
increasing to near gale force during the overnight hours along the
northwest coast of Colombia. A cold front will pass southeast 
through the Yucatan Basin on Mon and slow from east Cuba to the 
Gulf of Honduras on Mon night. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N65W to 
central Cuba. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally
strong SW winds within about 120 nm E of the front. Fresh to
strong NW winds are just off the Florida coast. Scattered showers
are associated with the front, which is forecast to reach a 
position from 31N61W to east Cuba on Fri, then stall across the 
tropical waters north of the Greater Antilles on Fri night into 
Sat. Remnants of the front will lift north on Sat night and Sun 
ahead of another cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast
on Sun. Near gale force southerly flow will develop north of the 
Bahamas on Sun ahead of the front. Farther east, a 1021 mb high 
pressure is centered near 22N60W. This system will move eastward 
over the next 24 hours reaching a position near 26N49W. Another 
cold front extends over the Atlantic from 31N27W to 25N45W. Fresh 
to strong winds are observed per scaterrometer data on either side
of the front but mainly N of 26N. A 1022 mb high is centered 
south of the Canary Island near 25N16W. The current large 
northerly swell will subside slowly across the open waters through
the end of the week. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ 
GR