000 AXNT20 KNHC 081151 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 651 AM EST Thu Mar 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coast of Africa near 05N09W to 03N12W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04S38W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm on either side of both boundaries. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure, with a 1025 mb over eastern Texas, extends a ridge across the Gulf region. Latest scatterometer and surface data indicate fresh to strong winds over the southwest Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range over the SW Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. The high pressure will retreat eastward Sat. This will enable a cold front to move into the northern waters late Sat night. This front will shift rapidly across the forecast waters, then southeast of the area by Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front has entered the NW Caribbean and extends from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. Patches of low level moisture with embedded showers are noted across the basin, particularly across Jamaica and eastern Cuba. The cold front will move SE today across the NW Caribbean while weakening. Latest satellite derived winds and surface observations indicate fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, except off the coast of Colombia where winds are near gale force. Light to gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean as well as the tropical N Atlc forecast zones. Large northerly swell propagating through the northeastern Caribbean passages, and through the tropical waters east of the Lesser Antilles, will gradually subside through the remainder of this week. Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south- central Caribbean through the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N66W to central Cuba. Scattered showers are associated with the front. To the east, a 1018 mb high is centered near 24N62W. Another cold front extends over the Atlantic from 31N28W to 23N45W. A 1020 mb high is centered over the east Atlantic near 24N22W. The current large northerly swell will subside slowly across the open waters through the end of the week. The cold front over the west Atlantic will continue moving east reaching from 31N65W to eastern Cuba by Friday morning. A secondary push of cool air will reach the west Atlantic later today and progress across the basin through the weekend. The front over the central Atlantic will weaken and dissipate during the next 24 hours as a surface ridge prevails. Another front is expected to move offshore over the west Atlantic by the end of this weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR