000 AXNT20 KNHC 060604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EST Tue Mar 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Storm Warning: Gale-force winds are occurring N of 28N between 60W and 70W from a cold front that extends from 32N41W to 16N61W, with 21 to 25 ft seas. Winds are expected to increase Tue morning, with storm-force winds expected N of 30N in about 6 hours between 60W and 65W. Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Another cold front will impact the waters E of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday, then move into the central Atlantic by the end of the week. Gale force winds are possible on Wednesday N of 29N within 90 nm E of the front. Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Large northerly swell will continue to push through the Atlantic Ocean passages, reaching the A-B-C Islands and coastal Venezuela through mid-week. The large swell also will propagate through the Tropical North Atlantic waters through the week. Please read the Offshore Waters Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAOFFNT3 and WMO header FZNT23 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is near the coast of Africa between 10N-11N. The ITCZ farther south extends from 03N17W across the Equator at 32W. No significant convection is occurring along the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A surface ridge extends from northern Florida to southern Texas. High pressure will slide eastward, and a cold front to enter the NW Gulf overnight. The front will move across the basin through Wednesday night, and then SE of the area on Thursday. Model guidance indicates active convection along the front through Tue evening. High pressure will build behind the front into Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Dry air subsidence prevails across nearly all of the basin, except SE of a line from 15N60W to 12N71W, where SW upper level wind flow is present. Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers are from 11N to 15N between 60W and 69W. A dissipating cold front passes from 16N61W to 14N70W. Rain showers are possible in scattered to broken low level clouds along the frontal boundary. Large northerly swell will continue to push through the Atlantic Ocean passages into the eastern Caribbean through Thursday. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the central Caribbean during the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about a storm force wind event for the central Atlantic Ocean, and a gale force wind event east of a cold front moving off Florida. A cold front extends from 32N41W to 16N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rain showers are ahead of the front within 180 nm either side of a line from 32N37W to 13N60W. Low level moisture is moving around the ridge into the area of an upper level trough associated with the front. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area north of 07N east of the cold front. A 1021 mb high is centered near 25N30W. Gale force winds in the central Atlantic will shift NE of the area by Wed night. Large mixed northerly swell will affect the waters E of Florida and the Bahamas through mid-week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell