000 AXNT20 KNHC 021720 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1220 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A deepening low pressure system near the northeastern United States is supporting a cold front that enters the discussion area near 32N69W. This frotn then extends southwestward across south- central Florida. Gale-force winds are occurring over the northern portion of the area, generally north of 30N between 67W and 77W. These conditions are expected to slowly shift eastward this weekend. East-Central Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Scatterometer and ship data indicate that gale-force winds are also occurring over the east-central Atlantic north of 29N between 33W and 41W due to a complex low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic. These winds are likely strongest in the scattered convection north of 30N between 33W and 40W. Seas are quite elevated, in the 15 to 20 ft. range, in mixed northwest and north swell. For both of these areas, please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS header, MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header, FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 5N9W and continues southwestward to 1N15W. The ITCZ continues from that location to 2S21W and then westward to 2S45W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150 n mi either side of the ITCZ axis between 18W and 44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front currently extends from south-central Florida westward to 27N89W, where it becomes stationary to 25N95W and then southward just off the coast of Mexico. Low- to mid-level clouds and scattered showers are occurring within 120 n mi north and west of the boundary. Winds are generally in the 20-25 kt range north of the front and light and variable south of the boundary. The front is expected to gradually weaken in the area, as the best upper-level support shifts eastward into the Atlantic. This should leave the area with generally quiet weather during the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak surface trough moving across the Windward Islands is generating some showers over the islands and over the far southeastern Caribbean waters. Otherwise, tranquil conditions exist across the remainder of the region supported by abundant dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere. The trade wind wind flow is lighter-than-average for this time of year because of a narrow and weak ridge to the north of the region. These winds will decrease further this weekend as the high gives way to broad troughing associated with a large and strong low pressure system well north of the area. This low will also cause large north to northeasterly swells to move through the gaps and across the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about the two gale-force wind events over the Atlantic Ocean. Elsewhere, a weak trough along 61W from 23N to 29N is producing scattered showers within 180 n mi east of the boundary. Similar activity is located near another trough, or shear axis, extending from 21N46W to 22N52W. Farther east, a cold front enters the discussion area near 32N15W and extends to a 1014 mb low near 24N34W and then continues to 21N42W. This feature is producing some shower activity, which is best organized near the low. Looking ahead, the strong low pressure pressure system currently near the northeastern United States is expected to strengthen a little more and slowly shift eastward this weekend. This will bring strong winds and high seas to a large portion of the western and central Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Cangialosi