000 AXNT20 KNHC 021202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 702 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Far Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front currently passes SW from 32N18W to 26N30W to 22N44W. Cold air advection and surface troughing north of this front will support minimal gale force winds and seas of 16 to 21 ft N of a line from 31N44W to 28.5N40W to 28.5N35W from this evening until Sat morning, then winds and seas will slowly subside and the troughing N of 32N weakens and shifts E. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS header, MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header, FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front swings SW from rapidly deepening surface low pres centered SE of New York City near 38N71W to 32N76W to near Jacksonville Florida. The low will continue to intensify as it heads SE and drag the cold front behind it. By this evening the cold front should pass from near 32N63W to 25N75W to the coast of Florida near 25.5N80W. At this time minimal gales and seas of 12 to 19 ft are expected N of 29.5N and W of the front to 76W. AS the low heads SE, a reinforcing front will merge with the leading cold front tonight, with strong to gale force winds prevailing north of 24N east of 75W. The merged fronts, and associated area of gale force winds will shift E of the area Sun. The largest swell event thus far this winter will accompany this system, affecting all waters E of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS header, MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header, FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas: IRVING and MADEIRA. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 03/1200 UTC calls for gale force winds in these areas to subside as surface troughing to the N weakens and shifts E. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W, crossing the Equator along 16W, to 02S19W to 04S28W to NE of Recife Brazil near 04S32W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate from 04S to 01S between 18W and 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front crosses the NW Gulf of Mexico from the coast of Louisiana near 29N91W to Tampico Mexico near 21N98W. A reinforcing has reached the coast of Texas and stretches from Houston to Brownsville. Cloudiness and isolated showers are occurring over the Gulf along and N of the leading cold front. The two cold fronts will merge during the next 24 hours. The resulting front will reach from the central Gulf along 25N to near Veracruz Mexico on Friday night. The combined front will dissipate over the western Gulf, while the eastern part of the front sinks southward over the Straits of Florida on Saturday afternoon before dissipating. A ridge will then build across the northern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak surface trough lies just E of the Windward Islands and extends from 10N60W to 16N60W. Isolated rain showers can be expected over the Windwards today as the trough heads through the area. Otherwise, broad upper-level ridging will maintain relatively dry weather over the basin during the next few days. Large NE swell will impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters through Saturday. A low pressure system will develop across the NW Atlantic Ocean, from Friday through the weekend. It will produce a large N swell, that will penetrate the NE Caribbean Sea Passages from Sunday through late Monday, reaching the A-B-C Islands and coastal Venezuela. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about the multiple gale-force wind events for the Atlantic Ocean. Rainshowers are possible from 17N northward from 60W eastward. A surface ridge passes through 22N11W in Mauritania, to a 1018 mb high pressure center that is near 17N28W, to 17N44W. A weak surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure center, that is centered near 30N55W across the southernmost part of Florida, to 26N90W in the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight. The front will reach from Bermuda to SE Florida on Friday afternoon. A reinforcing front will generate strong to gale force winds north of 24N east of 75W, as low pressure moves off the mid-Atlc coast. The fronts will merge on Saturday, from 22N65W to the Windward Passage, then weaken and sweep ESE across the NE Caribbean Sea on Sunday, before dissipating SE of the area on Monday. The largest swell event of this winter season will accompany this system, affecting all the waters E of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy