000 AXNT20 KNHC 020038 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 CORRECTED FOR DISCUSSION Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The 30-hour forecast consists of: a cold front along 31N65W 25N75W 25.5N80W. N OF 29.5N W OF FRONT TO 76W W TO NW WINDS 25 TO 35 knots. Sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 19 feet. Far Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front currently passes through 32N21W to 28N30W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 24N43W and 23N47W. A stationary front continues from 23N47W to 22N55W. A surface trough continues from 22N55W to 25N61W and 25N64W. A second surface trough is along 23N67W 27N71W 27N73W. The 24-hour forecast consists of a COLD FRONT FROM 23N35W TO 21.5N48W TO 21.5N53W. OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF LINE FROM 31N44W TO 28.5N40W TO 28.5N35W... West WINDS 30 TO 35 knots, and sea heights ranging from 16 feet to 21 feet. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS header, MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header, FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas: IRVING, MADEIRA, and CASABLANCA. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 03/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a westerly near gale or gale in : IRVING, MADEIRA, CASABLANCA, AGADIR, METEOR, and CANARIAS. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 01N13W. The ITCZ continues from 01N12W, crossing the Equator along 13W, to 03S20W, to 05S30W, and 05S36W along the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 05N southward from 20W eastward, and from 04N southward between 30W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line from SE Louisiana to the coast of Mexico near 20N96W. Moderate S to SW winds will continue ahead of the cold front that is in the NW Gulf. Strong northerly winds will follow the front along the coast of Mexico until Friday evening. The front will reach from the central Gulf along 25N to near Veracruz Mexico on Friday night. The front will dissipate across the western part, while the eastern part of the front sinks southward into the Straits of Florida on Saturday afternoon, and then it will dissipate. A ridge will build across the northern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough/shear axis extends from 17N57W, to 15N65W 12N73W, to the coast of Panama near 09N80W. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered-to-broken low level clouds, across the Caribbean Sea and in parts of the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, from 20N southward from 60W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 01/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... are: 0.32 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, and 0.04 in Trinidad. High pressure E of Bermuda extending SW to S Florida will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin, with strong winds pulsing at night off the coast of Colombia through Saturday. Large NE swell will impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters through Saturday. A very large and powerful low pressure system will develop across the NW Atlc from Friday through the weekend, and produce a very large N swell event that will penetrate the NE Caribbean Sea Passages from Sunday through late Monday, reaching the A-B-C Islands and coastal Venezuela. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about the multiple gale-force wind events for the Atlantic Ocean. Rainshowers are possible from 17N northward from 50W eastward. A surface ridge is along 21N18W, to a 1017 mb high pressure center that is near 18N27W, to a 1018 mb high pressure center that is near 17N41W, to 20N60W. A weakening Atlantic Ocean ridge, from E of Bermuda to S Florida, will shift E ahead of a cold front that is forecast to be moving off the NE Florida coast tonight. The front will reach from Bermuda to SE Florida on Friday afternoon. This front will be just ahead of a reinforcing front, which will generate strong to gale force winds north of 24N east of 75W as deep low pressure moves off the mid-Atlc coast. The fronts will merge on Saturday, from 22N65W to the Windward Passage, they will weaken, and then they will sweep ESE across the NE Caribbean Sea on Sunday, before dissipating SE of the area on Monday. The largest swell event of this winter season will accompany this system, affecting all waters E of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT