000 AXNT20 KNHC 020004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The 30-hour forecast consists of: a cold front along 31N65W 25N75W 25.5N80W. N OF 29.5N W OF FRONT TO 76W W TO NW WINDS 25 TO 35 knots. Sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 19 feet. Far Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front currently passes through 32N21W to 28N30W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 24N43W and 23N47W. A stationary front continues from 23N47W to 22N55W. A surface trough continues from 22N55W to 25N61W and 25N64W. A second surface trough is along 23N67W 27N71W 27N73W. The 24-hour forecast consists of a COLD FRONT FROM 23N35W TO 21.5N48W TO 21.5N53W. OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF LINE FROM 31N44W TO 28.5N40W TO 28.5N35W... West WINDS 30 TO 35 knots, and sea heights ranging from 16 feet to 21 feet. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS header, MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header, FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas: IRVING, MADEIRA, and CASABLANCA. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 03/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a westerly near gale or gale in : IRVING, MADEIRA, CASABLANCA, AGADIR, METEOR, and CANARIAS. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 01N13W. The ITCZ continues from 01N12W, crossing the Equator along 13W, to 03S20W, to 05S30W, and 05S36W along the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 05N southward from 20W eastward, and from 04N southward between 30W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through 29N76W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida near 28N81W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Honduras, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The surface pressure gradient in the Gulf of Mexico is comparatively flat. Moderate S to SW winds will continue ahead of a cold front moving into the northwest Gulf. Strong northerly winds will follow the front along the coast of Mexico until Fri evening. The front will reach from central Gulf along 25N to near Veracruz Mexico Fri night, then dissipate across W portions while E portion of front sinks S into the Straits of Florida Sat afternoon then dissipates. A ridge will build across the northern Gulf Sun and Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge passes through Cuba to the western half of Panama. An upper level trough/shear axis extends from 19N60W, to 15N70W and 13N79W. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered-to- broken low level clouds, across the Caribbean Sea and in parts of the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, from 20N southward from 60W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 01/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... are: 0.32 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, and 0.04 in Trinidad. High pressure E of Bermuda extending SW to S Florida will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin, with strong winds pulsing at night off Colombia through Sat. Large NE swell will impact the tropical Atlantic waters through Sat. A very large and powerful low pressure system will develop across the NW Atlc Fri through the weekend and produce a very large N swell event that will penetrate the NE Caribbean Passages Sun through late Mon, reaching the A-B-C Islands and coastal Venezuela. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about the gale-force winds that are associated with a frontal boundary. ' is feature. A 978 mb low pressure center is near 39N15W, about 270 nm to the west of Portugal. A cold front is connected with the low center, and it passes through Morocco, beyond 26N15W in the Western Sahara, to 23N18W. A surface trough continues from 23N18W to 19N30W, and 18N41W. Rainshowers are possible from 16N northward from 50W eastward. A cold front extends from a 35N36W 1001 mb low pressure center, through 32N36W, to 30N40W, 27N50W, and 25N64W. A surface trough continues from 25N64W to 26N73W, and 24N77W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 18N northward from 50W and 80W. Weakening Atlc ridge from E of Bermuda to S Florida will shift E ahead of a cold front moving off the NE Florida coast tonight. The front will reach from Bermuda to SE Florida Fri afternoon, just ahead of a reinforcing front which will generate strong to gale force winds north of 24N east of 75W as deep low pressure moves off the mid-Atlc coast. The fronts will merge Sat from 22N65W to the Windward Passage then weaken and sweep ESE across the NE Caribbean Sun before dissipating SE of the area Mon. The largest swell event of this winter season will accompany this system, affecting all waters E of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT