000 AXNT20 KNHC 010542 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1242 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 978 mb low pressure center is near 39N15W, about 270 nm to the west of Portugal. A cold front is connected with the low center, and it passes through Morocco, beyond 26N15W in the Western Sahara, to 23N18W. A surface trough continues from 23N18W to 19N30W, and 18N41W. Please refer to the METEO- FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE... BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas: IRVING, MADEIRA, CASABLANCA, AGADIR, and CANARIAS. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 02/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a westerly near gale or gale in : IRVING, MADEIRA, AGADIR, and CASABLANCA. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 01N12W. The ITCZ continues from 01N12W, crossing the Equator along 13W, to 04S24W, to 03S38W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N southward from 09W eastward. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 13N southward between 30W and 50W, and elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through 29N76W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida near 28N81W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Honduras, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The surface pressure gradient in the Gulf of Mexico is comparatively flat. Moderate-to-fresh S winds generated by a ridge, that extends W across the Gulf, will diminish tonight ahead of a cold front that will be moving into the northern Gulf early on Thursday. Strong northerly winds will follow the front along the coast of Mexico until Friday evening. The front will stall from western Cuba to near Veracruz Mexico on Friday night, and then dissipate on Saturday. A ridge will build across the northern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge passes through Cuba to the western half of Panama. An upper level trough/shear axis extends from 19N60W, to 15N70W and 13N79W. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered-to- broken low level clouds, across the Caribbean Sea and in parts of the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, from 20N southward from 60W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 28/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... are: 0.74 in in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.18 in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and 0.04 in Guadeloupe, 0.03 in Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.02 in Freeport in the Bahamas, and 0.01 in Montego Bay in Jamaica. High pressure north of the area will support moderate-to-fresh trade winds across the basin, with strong winds pulsing at night off the coast of Colombia through late week. Large NE swell will impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters through Saturday, with an even more significant N swell event penetrating the NE Caribbean Sea on Sunday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about the gale-force winds that are associated with this feature. A 978 mb low pressure center is near 39N15W, about 270 nm to the west of Portugal. A cold front is connected with the low center, and it passes through Morocco, beyond 26N15W in the Western Sahara, to 23N18W. A surface trough continues from 23N18W to 19N30W, and 18N41W. Rainshowers are possible from 16N northward from 50W eastward. A cold front extends from a 35N36W 1001 mb low pressure center, through 32N36W, to 30N40W, 27N50W, and 25N64W. A surface trough continues from 25N64W to 26N73W, and 24N77W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 18N northward from 50W and 80W. A weak surface ridge along 29N will shift eastward, ahead of a cold front moving off the NE Florida coast late on Thursday. The front will reach from Bermuda to SE Florida on Friday afternoon. This will happen just ahead of a reinforcing front, which will generate strong to gale-force winds north of 24N east of 75W, as deep low pressure moves off the Virginia coast. The fronts will merge on Saturday, and stall from 22N65W to the Windward Passage by Sunday, before dissipating Monday. A significant swell event, and likely the largest of this winter season, will accompany this system, affecting all waters E of Florida and the Bahamas by the end of this week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT