000 AXNT20 KNHC 010046 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 CORRECTED FOR SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 974 mb low pressure center is near 37N19W, to the east of the Azores Islands. A cold front is connected with the low center, and it passes through Morocco, beyond 27N14W in the Western Sahara, to 23N18W. The cold front is dissipating from 23N18W to 20N25W, and 19N31W. A surface trough continues from 19N31W to 18N41W. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas: IRVING, MADEIRA, CASABLANCA, AGADIR, and CANARIAS. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 02/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a westerly near gale or gale in : IRVING, MADEIRA, AGADIR, and CASABLANCA. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 01N14W. The ITCZ continues from 01N14W, crossing the Equator along 17W, to 01S26W, to 01S33W, and to 02S40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N southward between 14W and 18W. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers elsewhere from 11N southward from 60W eastward. A surface trough is along 06N34W 03N34W 01N33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes Florida near 28N81W, to the Gulf of Honduras, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The surface pressure gradient in the Gulf of Mexico is comparatively flat. Moderate to fresh S winds generated by a ridge, that extends W across the Gulf, will diminish tonight ahead of a cold front that will be moving into the northern Gulf early on Thursday. Strong northerly winds will follow the front along the coast of Mexico until Friday evening. The front will stall from the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz Mexico by Friday night, then dissipate on Saturday. A ridge will build across the northern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge passes Florida near 28N81W, to the Gulf of Honduras, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough passes through the northern part of the Windward passage, to southern Haiti. Scattered-to-broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers span Hispaniola. An upper level trough/shear axis extends from 19N60W, to 15N70W and 13N79W. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered-to- broken low level clouds, across the Caribbean Sea and in parts of the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, from 20N southward from 60W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 28/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... are: 0.74 in in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.18 in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and 0.04 in Guadeloupe, 0.03 in Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.02 in Freeport in the Bahamas, and 0.01 in Montego Bay in Jamaica. High pressure north of the area will support moderate-to-fresh trade winds across the basin, with strong winds pulsing at night off Colombia through late week. Large NE swell will impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters through Saturday, with an even more significant N swell event penetrating the NE Caribbean Sea on Sunday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about the gale-force winds that are associated with this feature. A 974 mb low pressure center is near 37N19W, to the east of the Azores Islands. A cold front is connected with the low center, and it passes through Morocco, beyond 27N14W in the Western Sahara, to 23N18W. The cold front is dissipating from 23N18W to 20N25W, and 19N31W. A surface trough continues from 19N31W to 18N41W. Rainshowers are possible from 16N northward from 50W eastward. A warm front extends from a 1000 mb low pressure center that is near 34N38W, to 32N35W, and 30N36W. A cold front extends from the 34N38W low center, to 30N44W, 26N60W, and 25N64W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 25N64W to 26N71W, and 25N76W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 18N northward from 50W and 80W. The current stationary front will dissipate by Thursday night. Fresh S to SW flow will increase late on Thursday off NE Florida, ahead of another cold front moving off the coast on Thursday night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Friday, just ahead of a reinforcing front which will generate strong to gale force winds north of 24N as deep low pressure moves off the Virginia coast. The fronts will merge on Saturday, and reach from 22N65W to the Windward Passage by Sunday. A significant swell event and likely the largest of this winter season will accompany this system, affecting all the waters E of Florida and the Bahamas by the end of this week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT