000 AXNT20 KNHC 010005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. A 974 mb low pressure center is near 37N19W is in the Azores Islands. A cold front is connected with the low center, and it passes through 32N15W to 27N20W, to 21N30W 19N40W, and 20N47W. A surface trough continues from 20N47W to 22N50W and 26N53W. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas: IRVING, MADEIRA, CASABLANCA, AGADIR, and CANARIAS. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 02/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a westerly near gale or gale in : IRVING, MADEIRA, AGADIR, and CASABLANCA. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W, crossing the Equator along 19W, to 01S22W, to the Equator along 29W, and continuing along the Equator along 42W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 07N southward from 52W eastward. A surface trough is along 07N30W 01N31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to the NW Bahamas near 26N77W. The front is dissipating from 26N77W, to South Florida near 26N81W, to 26N84W in the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible from 28N southward from 85W eastward. A warm front passes through the Florida Panhandle to 29N84W in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast low level clouds are in the coastal waters of the U.S.A. elsewhere between 85W and 90W. Moderate to fresh S winds generated by a ridge extending W across the Gulf will diminish tonight ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf early Thu. Strong northerly winds will follow the front along the coast of Mexico until Fri evening. The front will stall from the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz Mexico by Fri night, then dissipate Sat. A ridge will build across the northern Gulf Sun and Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean just to the east of Florida, across the dissipating cold front, to the NW half of the Bahamas, to Honduras. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea, from 77W eastward. An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 21N63W, to 15N70W, and 12N75W. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered-to-broken low level clouds, to the north of the line 15N83W 14N76W 13N70W 11N64W. High pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin, with strong winds pulsing at night off Colombia through late week. Large NE swell will impact the tropical Atlantic waters through Sat, with an even more significant N swell event penetrating the NE Caribbean Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about the gale-force winds that are associated with this feature. A 976 mb low pressure center is near 38N27W is in the Azores Islands. A cold front is connected with the low center, and it passes through 32N15W to 27N20W, to 21N30W 19N40W, and 20N47W. A surface trough continues from 20N47W to 22N50W and 26N53W. Rainshowers are possible are possible to the north of the line that passes through 32N11W 22N20W 17N40W 22N52W 24N54W. A second cold front passes through 32N53W, to 29N60W 27N70W, to the NW Bahamas near 26N77W. The front is dissipating from 26N77W, to South Florida near 26N81W, to 26N84W in the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that passes through 32N47W to 25N60W and 25N80W. A stationary front meandering E from Eleuthera Island into the open Atlc will dissipate by Thu night. Fresh S to SW flow will increase late Thu off NE Florida ahead of another cold front moving off the coast Thu night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Fri, just ahead of a reinforcing front which will generate strong to gale force winds north of 24N as deep low pressure moves off the Virginia coast. The fronts will merge Sat and reach from 22N65W to the Windward Passage by Sun. A significant swell event and likely the largest of this winter season will accompany this system, affecting all waters E of Florida and the Bahamas by the end of this week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT