000 AXNT20 KNHC 281109 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 609 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 976 mb low pressure center over the Azores Islands near 37N25W. A cold front is connected with the low center, and it passes through 32N13W to 20N30W to 18N40W. Please refer to the METEO- FRANCE High Seas Forecast at WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS- METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast MADEIRA, IRVING, AGADIR and CANARIAS. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W, crossing the Equator near 20W, and continuing along the Equator along 47W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered showers south of 05N between 23W and 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong winds off the north coast of Yucatan. The winds are related to weak a weak trough forming most evenings off the west coast of Yucatan and are fairly localized and will be short lived. Elsewhere, weak ridging extends across the basin. This is supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes over most of the Gulf with 1 to 3 ft seas, except for fresh southeast breezes over the northwest Gulf with 3 to 5 ft seas. No widespread areas of fog are noted over open waters. The fresh southerly flow over the northwest Gulf will diminish tonight ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf early Thu. Strong northerly winds will follow the front over mainly the western Gulf into Fri. The front will stall from the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz Mexico by late Fri before dissipating Sat. A ridge will build across the Gulf through Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Weakening high pressure north of the area is supporting generally moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin this morning. The exception was noted in scatterometer data from 02 UTC which showed fresh to strong NE winds through the Windward Passage. Seas are 3 to 5 ft. Upper diffluence on the southeast side of a broad upper trough reaching from Hispaniola to Costa Rica is supporting a few showers embedded in the trade wind flow over the southeast Caribbean. Elsewhere across the central and western Caribbean, fairly dry conditions are in place under the upper trough axis. Reinforcing high pressure north of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin, with strong winds pulsing at night off Colombia through late week. These winds will diminish by Sat as the high pressure weakens and shifts east ahead of a deep low pressure moving into the western Atlantic. Large swell will impact the tropical Atlantic waters through Sat, with a more significant swell event penetrating the NE Caribbean Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 50W, strong northeast winds follow a cold front reaching from 31N60W to the Straits of Florida. A few showers are noted east of 65W in phase with a supporting upper short wave trough and in an area of higher deep layer moisture. Drier conditions persist elsewhere, but low level clouds persist within 120 nm of the front. Recent buoy and altimeter data showed 6 to 9 ft seas north of 27N. Farther south, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Looking ahead, the cold front will stall east of the Bahamas and dissipate through late Thu. Fresh southerly flow will increase late Thu off NE Florida ahead of another cold front moving off the coast Thu night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Fri, just ahead of a reinforcing front with strong to possibly gale force winds north of 24N related to deep low pressure moving off the Virginia coast. The fronts will merge Sat and reach from 22N65W to the Windward Passage by Sun. A significant swell event will accompany this system, affecting all waters east of north Florida and the Bahamas by the end of the week. East of 50W, strong to near gale force winds persist north of 20N into the area of gales described in the special features. recent altimeter satellite data show seas are reaching as high as 30 ft north of 20N and east of 40W, with 10 to 15 ft in most areas elsewhere east of 50W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen