000 AXNT20 KNHC 280507 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1207 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 976 mb low pressure center is near 38N27W is in the Azores Islands. A cold front is connected with the low center, and it passes through 32N15W to 27N20W, to 21N30W 19N40W, and 20N47W. A surface trough continues from 20N47W to 22N50W and 26N53W. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas: IRVING, MADEIRA, CASABLANCA, AGADIR, METEOR, and CANARIAS. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 01/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a cyclonic near gale or gale from 25N northward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W, crossing the Equator along 19W, to 01S22W, to the Equator along 29W, and continuing along the Equator along 42W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 07N southward from 52W eastward. A surface trough is along 07N30W 01N31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to the NW Bahamas near 26N77W. The front is dissipating from 26N77W, to South Florida near 26N81W, to 26N84W in the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible from 28N southward from 85W eastward. A warm front passes through the Florida Panhandle to 29N84W in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast low level clouds are in the coastal waters of the U.S.A. elsewhere between 85W and 90W. Moderate to fresh southerly wind flow, related to a weak ridge across the Gulf, will diminish on Wednesday night, ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf early on Thursday. Strong northerly winds will follow the front, mainly in the western Gulf, into Friday. The front will stall from the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz Mexico by late Friday, before dissipating on Saturday. A ridge will build across the Gulf through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean just to the east of Florida, across the dissipating cold front, to the NW half of the Bahamas, to Honduras. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered-to-broken low level clouds, to the north of the line 15N83W 14N76W 13N70W 11N64W. High pressure, to the north of the area, will support moderate- to-fresh trade winds across the basin, with strong winds pulsing at night off Colombia through late week. Large swell will impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters through Saturday, with a more significant swell event penetrating the NE Caribbean Sea on Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about the gale-force winds that are associated with this feature. A 976 mb low pressure center is near 38N27W is in the Azores Islands. A cold front is connected with the low center, and it passes through 32N15W to 27N20W, to 21N30W 19N40W, and 20N47W. A surface trough continues from 20N47W to 22N50W and 26N53W. Rainshowers are possible are possible to the north of the line that passes through 32N11W 22N20W 17N40W 22N52W 24N54W. A second cold front passes through 32N53W, to 29N60W 27N70W, to the NW Bahamas near 26N77W. The front is dissipating from 26N77W, to South Florida near 26N81W, to 26N84W in the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that passes through 32N47W to 25N60W and 25N80W. The current cold front will stall east of the Bahamas and dissipate late on Thursday. Fresh southerly wind flow will increase late Thursday off NE Florida, ahead of another cold front moving off the coast on Thursday night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Friday, just ahead of a reinforcing front with strong to possibly gale- force winds north of 24N related to deep low pressure moving off the Virginia coast. The fronts will merge on Saturday, and reach from 22N65W to the Windward Passage by Sunday. A significant swell event will accompany this system, affecting all waters E of N Florida and the Bahamas by the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT