000 AXNT20 KNHC 270005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong 966 mb low pressure system with hurricane force winds centered over the north-central Atlantic near 40N33W supports a cold front from 40N24W to 28N30W to 31N57W. A strong pressure gradient associated with the deep low pressure and cold air advection associated with cold front are supporting gale force winds north of the front and east to 35W. Gale conditions are forecast to prevail through tonight then will gradually diminish as the low pressure moves farther away from the area. For more details, refer to the NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO Headers Misfit/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 02N16W, where it transitions to the intertropical convergence zone and continues to the coast of Brazil near 03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between 20W and 25W, and from 02S to 00N between 25W and 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front reaches from near Panama City Florida to Brownsville Texas. Radar from the across the northern Gulf shows a few showers along and north of the frontal boundary, mainly over the northeast Gulf, and what may be light rain or drizzle in patches over the north central and northwest Gulf. Dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s over the northwest Gulf, where platforms are showing areas of fog. Light southeast winds are noted south of the front with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, the front will weaken through tonight. High pressure will build across the region Tue. Another, stronger cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed night. Gale conditions are possible over the SW Gulf Thu night behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the area centered between Bermuda and the northern Bahamas is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh trade winds persist elsewhere. An upper low is centered north of the Mona Passage near 21.5N 68.5W with a sharp upper trough reaching to Nicaragua. This is supporting a few showers over Hispaniola and over portions of the northeast Caribbean. land based observations near Santa Marta Colombia show strong trade winds currently, and this is indicative of the strong flow off Colombia expected to reach near gale force overnight due to added drainage effects. Little change is expected over the next several days with strong winds pulsing off Colombia, and possibly the Windward Passage through mid week. Large long period swells will reach the Atlantic passages in the Leeward and Windward Islands late in the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Gale-force winds continue over northeast Atlantic waters associated with a strong low pressure system N of the area and associated cold front. See the Special Features section above for further details. A broad surface ridge prevails across the west and central Atlantic anchored by a 1024 mb high near 28N68W, which is forecast to move southwest by Tue morning before dissipating Thu. A cold front will move over the waters west of 55W by Tue morning and will continue to move over central Atlc waters Wed and Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen