000 AXNT20 KNHC 261804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 PM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong low pressure system with hurricane force winds centered over the north-central Atlantic near 40N34W supports a cold front that enters the area of discussion near 30N28W to 25N40W to 27N47W where it stalls and then continues to 31N57W. A strong pressure gradient between this broad low with associated front, and surface ridging to the west-southwest is supporting gale- force winds north of 28N between 35W and 42W. Gale conditions are forecast to prevail through Tuesday night as the center of high pressure in the SW N Atlc shifts SW while it weakens. For more details, refer to the NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through Nigeria, Africa near 05N04E and continues along 02N06W to 01N15W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 01S26W to 0N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S50W. Numerous strong convection is in the Gulf of Guinea to 02S. Scattered moderate convection is from 05S to 04N between 18W and 32W and from 03S to 04N W of 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Return light to moderate flow is across the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a weak cold front that extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to Louisiana adjacent waters near 28N91W where it becomes stationary continuing SW to Veracruz, Mexico adjacent waters. Radar imagery show a fine line of heavy showers in the immediate vicinity of the cold front, which is rapidly moving across the Florida Panhandle to the Florida Big Bend. Scattered showers and tstms are in the NW Gulf mainly west of the stationary front where moderate to fresh NE winds are being reported. Isolated showers are along the Mexico coast to near Veracruz. Looking ahead, the cold portion of the front will stall this afternoon and then the entire front will lift northward along the Gulf coast through Tuesday morning. Scattered showers will accompany the front through tonight. A stronger cold front is forecast to come off the NW Gulf on Thu morning with fresh to strong winds behind it. Gale-force winds are highly possible to develop along the coast of Mexico and in the western Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Stable weather conditions continue across most of the Caribbean, except for the north-central basin where an upper level low over Hispaniola support scattered showers and tstms over Dominican Republic and adjacent waters. Isolated showers are possible for Puerto Rico. In terms of winds, a ridge centered over the SW N Atlc continue to support fresh to strong winds over the south- central basin with strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. Latest scatterometer data show fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras and moderate winds elsewhere. A weak cold front is forecast to move across Cuba and Hispaniola next weekend supporting showers. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Gale-force winds continue over northeast Atlantic waters associated with a strong low pressure system N of the area and associated cold front. See the Special Features section above for further details. A broad surface ridge prevails across the west and central Atlantic anchored by a 1025 mb high near 29N68W, which is forecast to move SW by Tue morning before dissipating Thu. A cold front will move over SW N Atlc waters by Tue morning and will continue to move over central Atlc waters Wed and Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos