000 AXNT20 KNHC 260504 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1204 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A rapidly intensifying low pressure system centered over the north-central Atlantic supports a cold front currently extending along 31N. This front will enter the forecast waters along by today. A strong pressure gradient between this low and surface ridging to the west of it is supporting the development of gale- force winds north of 29N east of 41W. Gale conditions are forecast to prevail through late Tuesday. For more details, refer to the NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 04N08W and continues to 01N17W. The ITCZ extends from that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01S-05N between 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across most of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered over the west Atlantic. With this, fair weather dominates the area. Over the far northwest portion of the basin, a low pressure system is developing along the coast of Texas. A pair of 1011 mb lows are located near 29N96W and 27N98W. A stationary front extends through the lows and connects to another low currently centered over western North Carolina. A pre-frontal trough extends over the northeast Gulf waters from 30N85W to 29N90W. At this time, no significant convection is observed with any of these features. Ahead of the front, patchy fog has been reported mainly north of 27N and west of 90W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate southerly winds across the basin. Expect for the front to transition into a cold front overnight, moving across the northern Gulf waters today. The front will stall again through the day and then lift northward along the Gulf coast by Tuesday morning. Scattered showers will accompany this boundary. CARIBBEAN SEA... Stable and fair weather conditions dominate the Caribbean at this time as a broad area of high pressure extends across the area from the north. An upper-level low is centered north of Hispaniola extending a trough across the central Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted over the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico coastal waters supported by a diffluent flow aloft. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across most of the the basin except within 90 nm of the Colombia coast, where fresh to strong winds prevail. No major changes are expected through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Gale-force winds are already occurring over northeast Atlantic waters. See the Special Features section above for further details. A broad surface ridge prevails across the west and central Atlantic anchored by a 1026 mb high near 30N67W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the approaches of the Windward Passage forecast to increase to fresh to strong at night during the next two days. To the far east, a low pressure system over the northeast Atlantic continues to support a cold front that enters the area of discussion near 30N13W to 16N25W then becomes weak and stationary through 16N36W. Expect for a similar scenario to prevail through the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA