000 AXNT20 KNHC 241205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A system of low pressure over the NE Atlc will support a cold front forecast to extend from 31N43W to 29N53W by late Sunday night. A strong pressure gradient between this area of low pressure and surface ridging west of it will lead to the development of gale-force winds east of the front. Gale conditions are forecast to prevail through Monday morning. For more details, refer to the NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 03N32W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N48W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N-06N between 05W-15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Generally fair weather prevails across the basin with only patches of clouds moving quickly across the area. Winds are mostly light to moderate out of the east and southeast across the area, and seas are up to 6 feet in some locations. The exception is the far SE Gulf where latest scatterometer data show fresh winds, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. No significant changes are expected this weekend. Another front is expected to move over the northwestern waters on Sunday, but this feature is forecast to stall and weaken shortly after. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fair weather conditions prevail across the basin. The only area with a few showers is located SW of Hispaniola mainly north of 16N between 73W-79W. Abundant dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere is expected to limit significant thunderstorms from developing. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with locally strong winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. These winds will pulse every night through the weekend. Seas are highest near the coast of Colombia, up to 14 ft, and a large area of seas 8 ft and higher are occurring east of about 82W. Looking ahead into the weekend, winds and seas are expected to gradually lessen as the high pressure system to the north of the area weakens in place. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Besides for the low pressure system discussed in the Special Features section above, generally tranquil weather conditions are occurring across the Atlantic. Strong surface high pressure centered near Bermuda and dry air in the mid and upper-levels are supporting fair weather and moderate to fresh winds across the subtropical west and central Atlantic waters today. The low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to move eastward and weaken during the next 24 hours, but a cold front is expected to move into the same region bringing another round of strong winds. Little change is expected over the remainder of the basin during the next day or two as the high pressure system remains stationary and weakens. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos