000 AXNT20 KNHC 220530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1230 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting winds reaching gale-force strength from 10.5N to 13N between 73.5W and 77W. Wave heights within the area of gale-force winds will range from 10 feet to 15 feet. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas: IRVING and METEOR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 23/0000 UTC, consists of: the threat of NW near gale or gale in IRVING and in METEOR. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, crossing the Equator along 24W, to 02S27W, and to 03S33W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N southward from 53W eastward. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Upper level SW wind flow is to the south of the line 23N17W 17N40W 16N50W 14N68W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front is along the Texas Gulf coast. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 24N99W in Mexico, to 31N95W in east Texas/the upper Texas coast. The current weak cold front that is along the Texas coast will drift into the coastal waters tonight and stall before moving inland on Thursday. Strong high pressure across the W Atlantic Ocean will maintain a ridge extending W across the U.S.A. Gulf coast states in order to produce fresh return flow across most of the basin, except for strong winds through the Straits of Florida and across central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. A weak cold front will drift into the far NW waters on Saturday night, and stall there through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the Gale Warning for the waters that are near the coast of Colombia. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 22/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.46 in Guadeloupe. Strong surface high pressure across the NW Atlantic Ocean will dominate the region, settling across the Bermuda area through the end of the week. Fresh-to-strong trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea and the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean through Thursday, with nocturnal winds pulsing to gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. Surface high pressure will weaken through the weekend into early next week, leading to diminishing winds and seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N29W to 26N31W, 22N37W, 23N48W, 16N57W, and to 14N63W in the Caribbean Sea. The trough supports a cold front, that passes through 32N24W to 22N30W to 20N35W. A shear line continues from 20N35W to 18N50W, 17N60W, across the NE Caribbean Sea, to 17N70W in the Caribbean Sea. Broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW and N of the line that passes through 32N22W to 23N26W, to 16N40W 15N60W, and to 15N73W in the Caribbean Sea. A West Atlantic Ocean surface ridge will persist along 33N-34N through Thursday, and then drift SW and weaken slowly through the weekend. Gentle-to-moderate winds will prevail N of 25N, with fresh-to- strong winds S of 25N through Thursday. NNE swell will move through the waters that are to the E of 65W through Friday night. It is possible that a weak cold front may move off the NE Florida coast early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT