000 AXNT20 KNHC 220004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting winds reaching gale-force strength from 11N to 13N between 73.5W and 77W. Wave heights within the area of gale-force winds will range from 10 feet to 15 feet. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called: IRVING. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W, crossing the Equator along 22W, to 03S30W, to 03S40W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 06N southward from 53W eastward. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Upper level SW wind flow is to the south of the line 24N16W 18N40W 13N61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front will drift into the Texas coastal waters through the evening before stalling and moving back inland into early Thu. Strong high pressure across the W Atlc will maintain a ridge extending W across the Gulf coast states to produce fresh return flow across most of the basin, except strong winds through the Straits of Florida and across central portion of the Gulf. A weak cold front will drift into the far NW waters Sat night and stall there through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the Gale Warning for the waters that are near the coast of Colombia. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 21/1200 UTC... according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.77 in Guadeloupe, 0.06 in Curacao and in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.03 in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and 0.01 in Freeport in the Bahamas. Strong surface high pressure across the NW Atlantic Ocean will dominate the region, settling across the Bermuda area through the end of the week. Fresh-to-strong trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea and the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean waters through Thursday, with nocturnal winds pulsing to gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. Surface high pressure will weaken through the weekend into early next week, leading to diminishing winds and seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... W Atlc ridge will persist along 33N-34N through Thu then drift SW and slowly weaken through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail N of 25N with fresh to strong winds S of 25N through Thu. NNE swell will move through waters E of 65W through Fri night. A weak cold front may move off the NE Florida coast early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT