000 AXNT20 KNHC 191728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1228 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient continues between a high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressures in northern sections of South America. This pattern supports winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia every night/early morning hours through the week. Wave heights within the area of gale force winds will range between 12-16 ft. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W southwestward to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm on either side of the boundaries between 10W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends westward from a 1037 mb high centered over the west Atlantic and covers the whole basin. A thermal trough is extending across the Bay of Campeche with little to no convection. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate southeasterly winds across the whole area. These winds are transporting enough low-level moisture to generate scattered showers currently moving across the Straits of Florida while isolated showers are noted east of 90W. Expect increasing winds and building seas beginning today as high pressure strengthens in the western Atlantic. The thermal trough will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula through mid week, drifting westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours, and then dissipate in the SW Gulf waters by the late morning hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding the Gale Warning in effect for the area near the coast of Colombia. A tight pressure gradient across the basin created by the combination of a high pressure over the Atlantic and lower pressure over NW Colombia is producing strong east winds between 70W-80W, while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. The high pressure will be reinforced by a stronger one later today. The pressure gradient associated with this stronger high system will bring increasing winds and building seas across the eastern and central Caribbean, and the Tropical N Atlantic waters through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad area of high pressure prevails across the basin, centered by a 1024 mb high near 29N37W. A weakness in the ridge is noted as a surface trough that extends from 30N44W to 27N51W. A cold front has nudged southward to roughly along 30N between 50W-70W, then it becomes stationary as it extends northwestward to coastal Georgia at 31N79W. Minimal cloudiness is observed near the front. The front will become stationary today and dissipate by early Tuesday. The existing area of high pressure is forecast to be fortified by stronger system through mid-week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA