000 AXNT20 KNHC 161730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1230 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between a high pressure system over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern South America should continue to support winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia through the weekend. The sea heights in this region are forecast to range from 10 to 14 feet. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 06N10W and continues to 02N18W, with the ITCZ extending southwestward from there. The ITCZ dips below the equator around 24W. Scattered moderate convection is located within 180 n mi of the boundaries between 17W and 23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Quiet weather conditions continue across the Gulf of Mexico today supported by the western extension of a surface ridge and abundant dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Surface observations and scatterometer data indicate that the winds are light and generally southeast or southerly across much of the area. Sea heights are also low, except over the northwestern waters where reports have been around 5 ft. A weak surface trough is lingering over the Bay of Campeche, but this feature is only producing a patch of clouds and isolated showers. Little change in the pattern is expected to occur on Saturday, but winds and seas are forecast to increase by early next week when high pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. Only patches of clouds and embedded quick-moving isolated showers are occurring across the Caribbean Sea today. The trade winds in the area are fresh to strong, and they are even stronger near the coast of Colombia as discussed above. These winds are occurring due to the tight pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high over the western Atlantic and the typical lower pressure region over northern South America. No signiciant changes are expected to occur on Saturday, but winds and seas will likely increase over the eastern and central Caribbean on Sunday and early next week when high pressure builds to the north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tranquil conditions and fairly light winds are occurring across the western Atlantic supported by a surface ridge and a stable air mass aloft. Over the central Atlantic, an upper-level low and accompanying surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 28N-32N between 40W-46W. Similar activity is occurring over the deep tropics from 2N-5N between 43W-50W in association with a surface trough and diffluent flow aloft. No significant weather is occurring over the eastern Atlantic, but scatterometer data does indicate that the trade wind flow is fresh to strong south of about 20N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Cangialosi