000 AXNT20 KNHC 161150 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 650 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between a strong high over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure over northern South America should continue to support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia through the weekend. The sea heights associated in the gale region are forecast to range from 10 to 14 feet. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 04N07W and continues to 00N20W. Scattered moderate convection is located within 90 n mi south and 180 n mi north of the boundaries between 15W and 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin supporting fair weather. An area of patchy fog/haze is located over the northwestern Gulf waters mainly north of 27N and west of 92W. A weak trough is located over the Bay of Campeche, but this feature is not producing any significant weather. Moderate east to southeast return flow is expected across most of the Gulf waters through the weekend. A weak cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf on Saturday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms with it. The front will then retreat northwestward Sunday night and Monday. A thermal trough is expected to develop over the Yucatan Peninsula during the afternoon hours this weekend and drift westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche during the evening and overnight periods. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. Strong trade winds are expected across the southern Caribbean through the weekend, with minimal gale-force conditions along the northwestern coast of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are forecast elsewhere, including the north central passages. These strong conditions will spread eastward across the eastern Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic waters by Saturday night, and continue through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak frontal boundary over the central Atlantic Ocean continues to weaken, and it is currently estimated to extend from a low near 32N32W to 28N50W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near this feature from 28N to 31N between 40W and 46W, but this activity is more likely associated with an upper-level low. A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 28N68W and a 1029 mb high north of the area near 37N40W. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move off the coast of the southeast United States on Sunday, and then dissipate across the western Atlantic through Monday night. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of 25N, with moderate to fresh winds expected south of 25N. Locally strong winds will develop along the northern coast of Hispaniola and in the northern portion of the Windward Passage, especially during the evening hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/JPC