000 AXNT20 KNHC 160517 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1216 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient that exists between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and lower surface pressures in northern South America, will continue to support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia, roughly from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W, through the weekend. The sea heights associated with the gale-force wind conditions are forecast to range from 10 feet to 13 feet. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 06N11W and continues to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S41W. Scattered showers are noted within 150 nm south of the boundaries between 15W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin with fair weather. An area of patchy for/haze has developed over the northwest Gulf mainly north of 26N and west of 92W. A thermal trough is exiting the Yucatan Peninsula and entering the Bay of Campeche with isolated showers. This activity will dissipate towards the morning hours. Moderate east-to-southeast return flow is expected across most of the Gulf waters through the weekend. A weak cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf on Saturday with convection. The front will then retreat northwestward on Sunday night into Monday. The thermal trough in the western Yucatan Peninsula will continue developing during the afternoon hours this weekend and drift westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche overnight. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. Strong-to near gale-force trade winds are expected across the southern Caribbean through the weekend, with minimal gale-force conditions along the northwest coast of Colombia. Fresh-to- locally strong trade winds are forecast elsewhere, including the north central passages. These strong conditions will spread eastward into the east Caribbean and the tropical waters on Saturday night, and continue through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak frontal boundary continues weakening along 31N between 36W-50W with no significant convection. A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 29N66W. A weak cold front will move off the southeast United States on Sunday, and then dissipate across the northwest waters through Monday night. Light-to-gentle winds will prevail north of 25N, with moderate-to-fresh winds expected south of 25N. Locally strong winds will develop along the northern coast of Hispaniola and in the northern approach to the Windward Passage each evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA