000 AXNT20 KNHC 151728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1228 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient, that exists between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern South America, will continue to support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia, roughly from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W, through the week. The sea heights associated with the gale-force wind conditions are forecast to range from 11 feet to 17 feet. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W, to 05N14W, to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from 01N19W, to 02S25W, and to 04S33W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 07N southward. Upper level SW wind flow is to the SE of the line that passes through 32N09W 26N20W 17N50W 15N62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from Florida near 28N81W, to 26N89W in the Gulf of Mexico, to 20N97W at the coast of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible, in scattered-to-broken low level clouds, from 25N southward from 90W westward. Mist/fog and haze are possible also. Moderate east-to-southeast return flow is expected across most of the Gulf waters through Saturday. Locally dense fog across the northern waters will develop tonight, and dissipate by late Friday morning. A weak cold front will stall east-to-west across the northern and northwestern waters on Saturday, and then retreat northwestward on Sunday night into Monday. A thermal trough will develop in the western Yucatan Peninsula during the afternoons, drift westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours, and then dissipate in the southwest waters by late each morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 15/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.20 in Curacao, 0.03 in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe, in Kingston in Jamaica, and in San Juan in Puerto Rico. Strong-to near gale-force trade winds are expected across the south central and southwest Caribbean Sea through the weekend, with minimal gale-force conditions along the northwest coast of Colombia. Fresh-to-locally strong trade winds are forecast elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea, including the north central passages. These strong conditions will spread eastward, into the east Caribbean Sea and the tropical waters on Saturday night, and continue through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 32N35W to 30N50W, to a 1025 mb low pressure center that is near 32N67W. Scattered-to-broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the N of the line that passes through 32N28W to 26N50W, to 26N80W. An upper level trough extends from 32N14W, to 23N27W, becoming a shear axis to 16N47W, 16N56W, to 16N77W in the Caribbean Sea, to the central part of the coast of Nicaragua. An east-to-west oriented ridge along 29N will shift southward, to be along 27N on Friday. The ridge will shift northward, to be along 29N, late in the upcoming weekend. A weak cold front will move off the southeast United States on Sunday, and then dissipate across the northwest waters through Monday night. Light-to- gentle winds will prevail north of 25N, with moderate-to-fresh winds expected south of 25N, except locally strong along the northern coast of Hispaniola and in the northern approach to the Windward Passage each evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT