000 AXNT20 KNHC 150518 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1218 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient continues between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic and lower surface pressures in northern South America. This scenario is supporting gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia through the week. The sea heights associated with these wind conditions are forecast to range from 12 feet to 15 feet, subsiding some later in the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W and extends to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues from 00N22W to 04N37W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries between 15W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered over southwest Georgia. A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 24N96W to 20N95W. Low level clouds and areas of fog/haze are noted over the northwest Gulf waters north of 26N and west of 90W. Expect for the surface ridging to prevail across the basin through the rest of the week and the beginning of the weekend. A weak cold front will stall in the northern Gulf on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers are possible in areas of broken-to-overcast low level clouds across the entire area. Strong trade winds will continue to the east of 80W, including in the Atlantic Ocean passages, through Thursday morning. Winds to minimal gale-force will persist near the coast of Colombia through Sunday night. Winds and seas outside the central Caribbean will subside gradually from Thursday through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface low centered north of our area, extends a weak stationary front across the west Atlantic waters along 80W. No significant convection is observed in this area at this time. A 1028 mb surface high is centered near 29N75W. A frontal boundary extends along 30N-31N analyzed as a cold front through 58W, then becomes stationary to a 1026 mb low near 32N69W. Scattered showers are possible near these boundaries. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Expect for the surface ridge to remain in place through the weekend. A stationary front in the far northwest waters will dissipate during the early morning hours. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of 25N, with moderate to fresh winds expected south of 25N through Sunday. A weak cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast on Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA