000 AXNT20 KNHC 141741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1241 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient that exists between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern South America, will continue to support gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia through the week. The sea heights associated with these gale-force wind conditions are forecast to range from 12 feet to 17 feet, subsiding some later in the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N15W, 05N20W, and 02N24W. The ITCZ continues from 02N24W, crossing the Equator along 26W, to 05S34W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Upper level SW wind flow is to the SE of the line that passes through 28N13W 22N30W 16N50W 12N63W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The western part of the stationary front, from the MIATWDAT bulletin of 14/1205 UTC, has moved northward into parts of Louisiana and eastern Texas as a warm front. The front is stationary from Florida near 28N81W, to SE coastal Louisiana. The front is warm for the western of the Louisiana coastal plains, into the upper Texas Gulf coast, to 27N96W in the Texas coastal waters. A surface trough continues from 27N96W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 19N95W. Overcast low level clouds and areas of fog/haze and possible precipitation are near and to the north of the frontal boundary, in the waters and in the coastal plains. rainshowers are possible, also, from 23N southward from 93W westward. The current frontal boundary will weaken into a trough today. E to SE winds generated by a ridge, extending from the Atlantic Ocean into the central Gulf of Mexico, will prevail across the basin through Saturday. A weak cold front will stall in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 14/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.62 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.23 in Guadeloupe, 0.13 in Curacao, 0.07 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.01 in Freeport in the Bahamas. Strong trade winds will continue to the east of 80W, including in the Atlantic Ocean passages, through Thursday morning. Winds to minimal gale-force will persist near the coast of Colombia through Sunday night. Winds and seas outside the central Caribbean Sea will subside gradually from Thursday through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary is along 31N/32N from 60W westward, to a 1028 mb low pressure center that is near 31N78W. A stationary front continues from the 1028 mb low center, to Florida near 28N81W, and then westward into the northern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken overcast low level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N43W to 30N60W, to 28N70W, and to 25N80W. An upper level trough extends from a 22N32W cyclonic circulation center, to 14N56W, to 16N71W in the Caribbean Sea, and weaker from 16N71W to the coast of Nicaragua. rainshowers are possible from 20N to 24N between 28W and 34W. An east-to-west oriented ridge that is along 29N will remain in place through Sunday night. A stationary front in the far NW waters will dissipate tonight. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of 25N, with moderate to fresh winds expected south of 25N through Sunday. A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT