000 AXNT20 KNHC 141205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient that exists between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern South America, will continue to support gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia through the week. The sea heights associated with these gale-force wind conditions are forecast to range from 12 feet to 15 feet, subsiding some later in the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N19W, 05N22W, and 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W, crossing the Equator along 27W, to 02S33W, and 04S38W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N southward from 06W eastward. isolated moderate to locally strong from 05N southward between 09W and 22W, and from 10N southward between 37W and 52W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Upper level SW wind flow is to the SE of the line that passes through 28N13W 25N24W 16N50W 12N63W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front, that is across the northern and western Gulf, will weaken into a trough this morning. E to SE winds from a ridge extending from the Atlantic into the central Gulf will prevail over the basin through Sat. A weak cold front will stall over the northern Gulf on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. Strong trade winds will continue east of 80W, including Atlc passages, through Thu morning. Winds to minimal gale force will persist near the coast of Colombia through Sun night. Winds and seas outside the central Caribbean will gradually subside Thu through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary is along 31N/32N from 60W westward, to a 1028 mb low pressure center that is near 32N78W. A stationary front continues from the 1028 mb low center, to Florida near 28N81W, and then westward into the northern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 29N69W. A ridge, that is along 29N, will remain in place through the weekend. A cold front in the far NW waters will stall and dissipate by tonight. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of 25N, with moderate to fresh winds expected south of 25N through Sunday. A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT