000 AXNT20 KNHC 140525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1225 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight gradient between a strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America will continue to support gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia through the week. Seas associated with these gale conditions are forecast to be 12 to 15 ft, subsiding some later in the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwestward from the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 04S37W. No significant convection is related to these boundaries at this time. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the northern portion of the basin from 29N83W to 28N95W to 22N95W. No significant convection is related to the front at this time. A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N92W to 19N92W. Scattered showers prevail along the southern portion of the trough. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds over the northern Gulf north of 27N while moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted south of 27N. Expect for the front to continue weakening and dissipate during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. A surface ridge north of the area anchored by a 1031 mb high over the west Atlantic near 30N70W reaches the northern half of the basin, with the associated pressure gradient supporting fresh to strong trade winds between 68W-77W. Sea heights of 12 to 15 ft are expected near Colombia and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere. Strong winds are also occurring through the Atlantic passages, and are expected to continue through at least Wed. Satellite water vapor imagery shows dry and stable atmospheric conditions across the basin. Fast westward moving shallow trade wind showers with gusty winds are observed over the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak 1028 mb surface low is centered north of the area, and extending its cold front across the west Atlantic from 31N77W to 29N81W. NO convection is observed with this front. To the east, a broad surface high pressure over the area is associated with a 1031 mb centered over the west Atlantic near 30N70W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds south 25N and west of 40W, while gentle to moderate easterlies prevail elsewhere. Expect for the front to become stationary across the central Atlantic through Thursday. The next cold front is forecast to move over the northwest forecast waters early this weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA